Reds gave Pirates the clearest reason yet why Brandon Lowe is worth the qualifying offer

As the Pirates look to 2027, finding a way to retain Brandon Lowe’s services should be a top priority. Not only was the second baseman Pittsburgh’s best player, he is also a highly respected veteran on a team that needs experience and leadership. Extending Lowe a qualifying offer is a no-brainer, but if he turns down the contract and signs elsewhere, the Pirates could still come out as winners.

The roughly $23 million is nearly as much as Lowe made over his past six seasons, but his breakout year in 2026 has increased his value enough to command a multi-year deal that could exceed the qualifying offer sum annually. That could entice Lowe to turn down the QO in favor of a better offer. If he does so, the Pirates would be in line for a compensatory draft pick, and Pittsburgh needs only to look at the rival Reds to see the value of such picks.

If Brandon Lowe turns down a qualifying offer from the Pirates, Pittsburgh could still reap some rewards

In 2021, the Reds extended a qualifying offer to Nick Castellanos, who turned down the deal and signed a five-year, $100 million contract with the Phillies. In return, Cincinnati picked up the No. 32 pick in the 2022 draft.

The Reds then used that pick to sign Sal Stewart, who signed under the slot value and who is now a favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Castellanos, meanwhile, played just 39 games for the Padres this season after a messy split with Philadelphia.

A compensatory pick does not always guarantee success, as the Pirates know well. The last time Pittsburgh extended a qualifying offer, the team tried to hold on to catcher Russell Martin, who eventually signed with the Blue Jays. The Pirates used their pick on Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has turned into one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball.

There are enough success stories to provide a level of hope for teams that fail to get their guy. Aaron Judge, Shane McClanahan, Will Smith, Jack Flaherty, and others have found their way to significant big-league careers from the compensation round. If Brandon Lowe does slip through the Pirates’ fingers, it’s worth remembering that all is not lost.

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