Pirates giving Brandon Lowe qualifying offer will be their easiest (and most fruitless) offseason call

The Pittsburgh Pirates' biggest Brandon Lowe decision this offseason should also be their easiest.

Give him the qualifying offer.

Lowe is headed for free agency after completing the final club-option year attached to the six-year, $24 million extension he originally signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. The qualifying offer for this winter is expected to land at approximately $23.1 million, giving the Pirates a remarkably straightforward choice with their best hitter from 2026.

There is virtually no downside. Lowe just hit 35 home runs, drove in 96 runs and produced 5.5 bWAR for Pittsburgh. If he somehow looks at a one-year deal worth roughly $23 million and accepts it, the Pirates get their best power hitter back without making a long-term commitment.

That would hardly qualify as a bad outcome for a team that spent years searching for exactly the kind of middle-of-the-order production Lowe provided. But that's probably not what's going to happen.

Lowe is 32, this is his first real opportunity to test free agency and the market should offer him extra years the qualifying offer cannot. Coming off a 35-homer season at a position where that kind of power is difficult to find, he has every reason to pursue the largest multiyear guarantee available.

And, unfortunately for Pirates fans, another team seems far more likely than Pittsburgh to provide it.

Because Pittsburgh is a revenue-sharing recipient, there could be significant draft compensation attached to Lowe's departure. Under the current qualifying-offer rules, if Lowe rejects the offer and signs elsewhere for at least $50 million guaranteed, the Pirates would receive a compensatory selection between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2027 MLB Draft. If his contract comes in below $50 million, Pittsburgh's compensation would instead come after Competitive Balance Round B.

Considering the type of contract Lowe could command, that $50 million threshold hardly seems unreasonable. So this should be automatic.

Offer Lowe the roughly $23.1 million. Hope he accepts (which he probably won't). Continue negotiating with him even if he declines. And if another team eventually gives him the multiyear payday Pittsburgh won't, at least turn losing him into another meaningful draft asset.

Pirates giving Brandon Lowe the qualifying offer is lowest bar they can clear, but it's not proof they tried

There is, however, an important distinction here the Pirates shouldn't be allowed to blur.

Giving Lowe a qualifying offer is not the same thing as seriously trying to re-sign him. It's the bare minimum.

The qualifying offer essentially protects Pittsburgh against losing Lowe for nothing. It does not excuse the organization from making a competitive multiyear proposal to a player who has already expressed openness to returning and who just supplied precisely the kind of offense this roster has lacked for years.

If Lowe eventually signs four years and $90 million somewhere else while the Pirates point toward their shiny new compensatory draft pick, nobody should confuse that with an aggressive attempt to retain him.

The draft pick would merely be a consolation prize. A potentially valuable one, certainly. For an organization that relies heavily on drafting and developing talent, an additional selection near the end of the first round could become an important piece of the next Pirates core.

But Pittsburgh is supposed to be trying to win with this core. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and the rest of the Pirates' young talent shouldn't need another prospect who might help three or four years from now nearly as badly as they need proven major league offense in 2027.

That's why the Pirates should absolutely give Lowe the qualifying offer. But it shouldn't be the biggest offer they make him.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow