Slugging Pirates outfielder has literally been the unluckiest hitter in baseball

The Pirates currently have the worst offense in the major leagues, and that is a big factor as to why they are 6-11. Things have looked brutal, and it has mostly been very tough to watch, yet there is some reason to have hope in this team.

Jack Suwinski is a player who stands out at the moment, as his numbers look very bad; he's batting .107 (3-for-28) with an OPS of .408, stemming from an OBP of .265 and a .143 SLG. What is really poor is his strikeout rate of 41.2%, which ranks in the first percentile, bottom of the league.

Some fans believe that this is enough to DFA him, as he needed to prove a lot following his 2024 campaign, but that is not what the Pirates should do. In fact, he has been the unluckiest player in baseball, per one key metric. It is tough to describe a guy who's striking out over 40% of the time as unlucky, but Statcast metrics do support that claim.

Jack Suwinski has not only been the unluckiest hitter for the Pirates, but in entire MLB.

As shown from this graphic, Suwinski has the highest differential between his SLG and xSLG in the game of baseball through two weeks. The expected version of slugging percentage uses metrics such as a exit velocity and launch angle to predict what a player's slugging could be, based upon how well they are hitting the ball. What this shows is that Suwinski is hitting the ball very well, just not exactly finding holes in the outfield. If he keeps hitting the ball this well, he should have a lot of extra base hits, which is what his .451 xSLG describes.

Of course, it's hard to live up to these luck metrics if you never make contact.

Suwkinski's Statcast numbers are very strong; he's produced an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph, a 21.4% barrel rate, a 50% hard-hit rate, a 71.4% launch angle sweet spot, and 74.5 mph bat speed. Those numbers are quite similar to what he put up in 2023, the season where his OPS reached .793 with 26 home runs.

Cutting down the strikeouts would be ideal moving forward, leading to more balls put in play. As shown above, Suwinski is putting great swings on the ball, and he has really gotten unlucky with the results of his contact. In fact, he's been the unluckiest in baseball.

His turnaround would be a big boost for a Pirates team that lacks offense. Pittsburgh's offense has been pretty unlucky as a team thus far, so hopefully Suwinski being in front can lead a charge.