Spencer Horwitz has a chance to break this long-standing Pirates curse

The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled for decades to find a suitable first baseman. Even when they were good from 2013 through 2015, the position was a revolving door, with a new first baseman every Opening Day and at the end of each season. After a lengthy period of doldrums, the Pirates’ newest acquisition, Spencer Horwitz, has a chance to do something no Pirates first baseman has done since the early 1980s.

Horwitz put up some decent numbers in his rookie campaign in Toronto. He batted .265/.357/.433 with a .344 wOBA, and 127 wRC+ through 381 plate appearances. Horowitz provided above-average power, with a dozen home runs and a .168 isolated slugging percentage. He struck out at just an 18.4% rate with a walk rate of 11%. The underlying numbers liked Horwitz’s performance as well, as he was above the 60th percentile of xBA, xSLG%, and xwOBA. Horwitz graded out as a solid defensive 1B with only -1 defensive run saved, but +1 out above average in 300 innings.

In Horwitz’s abbreviated rookie season, he put up +1.9 in FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) in just 97 games. Around +2.0 fWAR is considered an average value player. The last Pirates’ 1B to put up at least +2.0 fWAR is Josh Bell in 2019 at +3.0. But the last Pirates first baseman to put up two consecutive seasons with at least +2.0 fWAR? You have to go all the way back to 1982 and 1983. Jason Thompson put up two consecutive seasons with at least +2.0 fWAR during these two campaigns, with +5.2 in ‘82 and +2.4 in ‘83.

Spencer Horwitz can finally cleanse Pirates fans of yearning for Jason Thompson

During those two years, Thompson batted .272/.384/.460 with a .375 wOBA and 136 wRC+. Thompson hit 49 home runs, including going yard 31 times in ‘82. He struck out at about the same rate as Horwitz, with an 18.3% K%, but walked far more frequently, with a 15.6% BB% (though do keep in mind the league-average strikeout rate was under 14% in both seasons). Thompson’s defense at first base did not get good reviews, with -9 total zone runs.

Now, wins above replacement is not an exact science. The difference between a +1.5 win player and a +2.0 win player is almost negligible. But the fact that the Pirates haven’t had a first baseman considered to have average value since the early '80s is impressive, but not in a good way. Horwitz is under control through the 2029 season, and hopefully, he can do something that hasn’t been done since four decades ago. Based on his rookie season, he has a very good chance of doing so.