Surprising Pirates reunion prediction could become an expensive offseason mistake

The Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of needs to address this offseason, and upgrading their bullpen should be among their priorities. But one MLB insider's surprising free-agent prediction raises questions about whether the organization could end up spending significant money without actually improving its roster.

In his ranking of the top 40 MLB free agents for 2026-27, Jim Bowden of The Athletic identified the Pirates as the only best fit for veteran reliever Gregory Soto, projecting a two-year, $22 million contract.

That's a substantial commitment for a pitcher Pittsburgh signed to a one-year, $7.75 million deal last offseason — especially considering the inconsistencies that defined his first year with the organization.

Soto's overall numbers weren't particularly concerning. The 31-year-old left-hander finished 2026 with a 3.63 ERA, 79 strikeouts and 16 saves across 67 innings. Opposing hitters managed just a .199 batting average against him. But he also blew six saves in 22 opportunities, and his occasional command issues proved costly.

That's precisely the type of volatility the Pirates should be trying to eliminate, especially after they spent most of the season trying to stabilize their bullpen. And at an average annual salary of $11 million, Soto would represent a significant investment in a reliever whose reliability remains questionable.

Pirates can't afford to confuse spending money with improving their bullpen

There's certainly an argument for bringing Soto back. His ability to miss bats, generate weak contact and handle high-leverage situations makes him a valuable bullpen option. Pittsburgh also needs dependable left-handed relief depth beyond Mason Montgomery, who emerged as one of baseball's most effective closers during the second half.

But Montgomery's emergence, combined with Luke Weaver's presence as an experienced setup option, also gives the Pirates an opportunity to be more selective about how they allocate their resources.

After the trade deadline, Pittsburgh's bullpen improved from a 4.34 ERA to 3.49, demonstrating that meaningful improvements were possible without relying exclusively on the pitchers who struggled earlier in the season.

The Pirates still need additional relief help, particularly following Kirby Yates' retirement. But committing $22 million to Soto would represent a considerable gamble when the organization has pressing needs elsewhere.

Brandon Lowe's uncertain future, questions at third base and catcher, and the need for another reliable starting pitcher all deserve financial consideration. It's especially difficult to justify paying Soto $11 million annually when Bowden's projections suggest Lowe, arguably Pittsburgh's most important pending free agent, could return for just $15 million per season.

The issue isn't whether Soto deserves another major league contract. It's whether the Pirates should be the team offering him a substantial raise and a second guaranteed year.

The Pirates need to spend more money this offseason. That's hardly debatable. But spending more only matters if they're getting better, and paying $22 million to retain a familiar, inconsistent reliever could become another expensive reminder that those two things aren't necessarily the same.

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