Team USA faces strategic dilemma when it comes to Paul Skenes' role at the WBC

When the World Baseball Classic reaches its defining moments, every team wants the same thing: the ball in the hands of its best pitcher. For Team USA, that pitcher is Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes.

But the Americans face a complicated reality. The obvious move and the optimal move may not be the same.

On pure baseball logic, Skenes should start the championship game if Team USA gets there. The reigning National League Cy Young winner is the most dominant arm in the tournament and the kind of pitcher who can single-handedly tilt a one-game final. If the gold medal game comes down to one pitcher against another powerhouse lineup, Skenes is the weapon you want.

The problem is timing. Instead of being lined up for the championship game, Skenes is currently projected to start the semifinal, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

It's a decision driven less by tournament strategy and more by the realities of the MLB calendar. Skenes has told Team USA officials that he wants to stay on a normal four-to-five day rest schedule as he prepares for the Pirates’ regular season. Pitching in the final would mean working on seven days’ rest, something Team USA manager Mark DeRosa believes would disrupt that rhythm too much heading into Opening Day.

That’s where the dilemma begins. If the United States uses Skenes in the semifinal, it maximizes the chances of reaching the championship game. In a single-elimination environment, having your ace on the mound in that round could be the difference between advancing and going home. But it also means the Americans might reach the final without their best pitcher available — and for Team USA, there are bigger forces at play.

Paul Skenes unlikely to pitch for Team USA in potential WBC championship game

Unlike many international tournaments, the WBC exists in the shadow of the MLB season. Teams and players alike are cautious about workloads, particularly with a pitcher like Skenes who is not only one of baseball’s brightest stars but also the centerpiece of the Pirates’ future.

That reality means Team USA has to balance three priorities at once: winning the tournament, protecting Skenes' health and routine, and respecting the interests of his MLB club. Unfortunately, all those priorities don’t perfectly align.

If Skenes dominates in the semifinal and pushes Team USA into the championship game, the Americans could suddenly find themselves facing the tournament’s biggest moment without their most overpowering weapon. But if they held him back for the final and never got there, the criticism would be immediate.

Either way, Team USA is navigating a tightrope — one where the best pitcher in the tournament might not pitch in its biggest game. And that’s the paradox of Paul Skenes in the World Baseball Classic: the ace every team wants, but one the United States has to deploy carefully.