The case for a Konnor Griffin extension — and what it could look like for Pittsburgh

The biggest question at Pittsburgh Pirates spring training is no longer whether Konnor Griffin breaks camp with the big club. It’s whether the Pirates are ready to treat him like a franchise cornerstone before he ever takes a regular-season at-bat.

Griffin, the ninth overall pick in 2024, won’t turn 20 until late April. He’s barely touched Double-A. And yet, after a .333/.415/.527 season with 21 homers and 65 steals — followed by two spring bombs off $130 million lefty Ranger Suárez — the conversation has shifted from “Is he ready?” to “How long can you afford to wait?”

If the Pirates believe Griffin is part of the same competitive window as Paul Skenes, then an extension isn’t aggressive. It’s logical.

Recent MLB comps for a Konnor Griffin extension in Pittsburgh

Jackson Chourio (Milwaukee Brewers)

The gold standard here is Jackson Chourio, who signed an eight-year, $82 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers before his MLB debut. Two club options pushed the potential value north of $140 million.

It was unprecedented at the time. It also worked. Chourio delivered 3.9 WAR as a rookie and validated Milwaukee’s bet immediately. They bought out arbitration years, added cost certainty, and secured upside in his mid-to-late 20s.

For Griffin, two years of salary inflation and escalating prospect valuations likely push that baseline north of $100 million. Think: eight years, $100–110 million, with two club options that could take the deal into the $150–170 million range. That would buy out his six years of control plus two free-agent years — likely through age 27.

Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony (Boston Red Sox)

Boston has quietly embraced early bets on its top prospects. Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony represent the modern version of this strategy: identify core pieces early, create payroll flexibility long-term, and avoid arbitration escalators if they break out.

Anthony signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (starting in 2026) that can max out at $230 million with incentives. Campbell agreed to an eight-year, $60 million extension in April 2025. Both deals show that Boston isn’t waiting for full proof of concept. They’re betting on talent curves.

If Pittsburgh sees Griffin as a middle-of-the-order shortstop — not just a toolsy athlete — then waiting only makes him more expensive.

Jacob Wilson (Athletics)

Of course, not every extension needs to shatter precedent. Jacob Wilson with the Athletics represents a lower-risk archetype: high-contact profile, defensive stability, less volatility.

If the Pirates wanted more protection against risk, they could structure something like eight years, $90–95 million, heavy on incentives and escalators tied to WAR, All-Star appearances, and MVP voting. It's a lower guarantee with high upside triggers.

Samuel Basallo (Baltimore Orioles)

Then there’s Samuel Basallo of the Baltimore Orioles — a physical, middle-of-the-order talent with superstar ceiling.

Griffin’s athleticism, power-speed combo, and defensive projection arguably place him closer to Basallo’s upside tier than Wilson’s. If the Pirates truly believe Griffin is that level of player, an eight-year deal north of $110 million becomes defensible — especially with two option years controlling ages 28 and 29.

The bottom line? Without an extension, Griffin hits arbitration during Skenes’ cost-controlled window. That squeezes payroll flexibility just as the Pirates are trying to contend.

With an extension, they lock in cost certainty through Griffin’s prime. They avoid escalating arbitration battles. They potentially buy two free-agent years below market. And they send a message to the clubhouse — and the fanbase — that they invest in generational talent.