This Pirates player is pretty much guaranteed not to make the Opening Day roster

For Endy Rodríguez, the hardest part might not have been the multiple elbow surgeries. It might be what comes next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates catcher has done everything right since his elbow unraveled: endured two procedures, attacked rehab, rebuilt his arm and his confidence, and arrived at PiratesFest declaring himself “full go” for spring training. By all accounts, he’s healthy. Mentally sharp. Hungry. Ready.

And yet, barring something unexpected, Rodríguez is walking into spring training fighting a math problem he probably can’t solve.

He’s almost certainly not making the Opening Day roster.

That’s not an indictment of his talent. It’s a reflection of the roster reality he’s stepping back into.

The Pirates’ catching situation has quietly stabilized in his absence. Joey Bart established himself as a reliable big-league option. Henry Davis is still a former No. 1 overall pick the organization is heavily invested in developing. Behind them sits Rafael Flores, one of the system’s fastest-rising prospects and Baseball America’s No. 6 Pirates prospect, who also needs upper-level at-bats.

There simply aren’t enough chairs when the music stops.

Pirates' roster math likely squeezes Endy Rodríguez off of Opening Day squad

Rodríguez’s versatility — the ability to play first base — helps in theory. In practice, it complicates things. First base is already a position where the Pirates are juggling bats, and teams rarely carry a third catcher unless he’s a defensive specialist or an irreplaceable bench weapon. Rodríguez, coming off back-to-back elbow surgeries and limited big-league production, doesn’t fit either description right now.

The Pirates don’t just need Rodríguez healthy for March. They need him healthy for six straight months. After two elbow procedures, the organization’s priority will be durability, workload management, and consistent reps. The worst thing they could do is rush him into a sporadic bench role in Pittsburgh where he catches once a week, pinch-hits twice, and never finds rhythm.

For Rodríguez, Triple-A Indianapolis offers something the majors can’t: everyday structure. He can catch regularly, throw regularly, build arm strength under game conditions, log innings at first base, and reclaim timing at the plate. Most importantly, he can prove to both himself and the Pirates that his elbow can survive the grind he’s insisting he’s ready for. That doesn’t happen in a limited MLB role.

Rodríguez’s prospect pedigree hasn’t vanished. The hitter who slashed .323/.407/.590 across three levels in 2023 didn’t disappear — he got interrupted. Injuries stole development time, not talent. The Pirates still believe in the player. But belief doesn’t override roster construction or medical caution.

Opening Day is about certainty. Rodríguez, through no fault of his own, is still a question mark. That doesn’t make him an afterthought. It makes him one of the most important depth pieces in the Pirates organization.

Catchers get hurt. Seasons get long. Needs emerge. And when they do, the Pirates will want a fully built-up Endy Rodríguez waiting — not a rushed version trying to survive.