At times, predictions of free agent signings can spark hope in a fanbase, particularly when those fans have been searching for hope for years. Unfortunately, MLB insider Mark Feinsand recently suggested that the Pirates could make a deal with 37-year-old starter Merrill Kelly, which sparked the exact opposite.
For a Pittsburgh team currently toying with parting ways with a young, controllable ace in Mitch Keller, this signing would make no sense.
Kelly, who has been a workhorse for the D-Backs and ended 2025 with the Rangers, wouldn’t necessarily be a bad pickup. It’s just that he would be only slightly better than Keller and would likely be signed to a one-year deal. Spotrac estimates Kelly’s market value to be a one-year, $15 million contract. Keller, meanwhile, will make an average of $18.6 million over the remaining three years of his deal. Is a $3 million budget cut (which is really just $1.9 million if you directly compare it to Keller’s 2026 salary) really worth eight more innings and about a half-run lower ERA?
The Pirates signing Merrill Kelly would signal more of the same from Ben Cherington.
Kelly has his upsides. He is an excellent swing-and-miss artist with some of the best offspeed stuff in the majors. He has postseason experience and is a veteran leader in the clubhouse. However, he has battled hamstring injuries for the past few years and could be nearing the end of his career.
Merrill Kelly masterclass. 🔥
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 29, 2023
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/34P9TuiZQ5
If the Pirates want to trade Keller, that’s fine. The move would clear up some budget space and make room for Pittsburgh’s seemingly endless pool of young starters. Signing Kelly would negate those outcomes. The rotation would once again become bloated, and the payroll would stay pretty much the same. The Pirates would be tying their hopes to a similar pitcher to Keller, stats-wise, with mounting injury concerns.
Rather than chasing Kelly, who would be a better fit on an established contender in need of one more arm, the Pirates should focus on offense. Feinsand surprisingly linked Pittsburgh to Eugenio Suarez, who would be a significant step in the right direction for the club. Trent Grisham or Ryan O’Hearn wouldn’t go amiss, either.
If the Pirates seem to finally be ready to spend money on free agents – if Kelly got $15 million, it would be the one of the most expensive signings in franchise history – the club would be better off directing that money toward a hitter. The Pirates had the sixth-best ERA in the majors, but ranked dead last in OPS. The relentless pursuit of pitching must be stopped for the good of the team.
