In March 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates claimed an unsuspecting pitcher off of waivers from the Rockies. Like many before him, he had struggled to find success in Colorado, posting a 6.49 ERA across 59.2 innings in 2024 and failing to sufficiently prove himself in spring.
That sidearm reliever was Justin Lawrence, and he went on to post a 0.51 ERA and 2.23 FIP for the Pirates in 2025. Now, he seems poised to take another big step forward.
Lawrence was unfortunately limited by elbow inflammation which sent him to the 60-day IL last season. He managed to return in September but pitched a total of just 17.2 innings in 2025, putting a potential asterisk on his impressive numbers. Now that he's healthy, he's confident that he'll have a big impact on the team. But what exactly does he bring to the table?
If he's injury-free, Justin Lawrence could have a key role in the Pirates' bullpen in 2026
Like most relievers, Lawrence possesses a two-pitch mix. A big adjustment he made in 2025 was to promote his sweeper to be his primary pitch over his sinker, a sensible move given how much better his breaking ball has performed. His sweeper had a 40.0% whiff rate and held opposing hitters to a measly .114 slugging percentage.
His sinker was responsible for much of the damage he sustained in 2024 but allowed less hard contact last year, likely due to how it played off of his sweeper. Because of his low arm angle, it can sometimes come in flat and become susceptible to hard contact but with proper sequencing, it can sneak by for called strikes or ground balls.
Justin Lawrence, Frisbee Sweeper...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/WcZKcqcwhq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 15, 2025
Lawrence continued to dazzle in spring training, boasting an elite whiff rate of 33.3% and a zone-contact rate of just 67.4%, placing him in the 98th percentile for the statistic. Of the 28 batters he faced in spring training, none managed to barrel up any of his pitches.
Unfortunately, the same could not be said on Opening Day, which saw Lawrence get tagged for a pair of homers in an inning of work against the New York Mets. Still, it's hard to judge his performance too harshly after back-to-back gaffes by Oneil Cruz detonated the game for Pittsburgh before it even began.
When it comes to pitching, Pittsburgh's rotation tends to receive most of the spotlight thanks to Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, and the recovery progress of Jared Jones. In the bullpen, Dennis Santana's outstanding showing as the Pirates' closer in the wake of David Bednar's departure likely means he'll return to the role next season but he's not the team's only option.
Based on stuff alone, Lawrence also has what it takes to serve the team in high-leverage relief situations. It may take time to build up enough trust to step into a closer role but serving as a setup man in the eighth inning isn't out of the question.
Whether he can maintain his momentum and stay healthy over the course of a full season remains to be seen but what he has done for the organization so far has only fueled the hype behind him.
