This top Pirates prospect could become trade bait in a third base push

When the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Termarr Johnson with the fourth overall pick in 2022, he was touted as the best prep hitter baseball had seen in decades. He was getting Wade Boggs and Vladimir Guerrero comps that never stood a chance of being fair. By that standard, anything short of superstardom was always going to feel like a letdown.

Fast forward more than three years, and Johnson hasn’t failed. He’s just… evolved into something more complicated. And that complication is exactly why he might be the Pirates’ most logical trade chip if they finally push for a real third baseman.

Johnson’s development arc doesn’t scream bust — it whispers adjustment. The raw numbers tell a story of refinement rather than regression. His strikeout rate has dropped dramatically, from 26% in 2023 to 18.5% last season. His batting average climbed to a career-best .272 in Double-A in 2025. He still walks at an elite clip. And he did all of this while being one of the youngest players at nearly every stop he’s made.

What hasn’t materialized is the tool the Pirates thought they were buying at No. 4 overall: impact power. Johnson’s nine homers last season weren’t the kind of output that forces an organization to bend its roster around you. Instead, he’s becoming a hitter who profiles more as “good at many things” than “elite at one.”

Meanwhile, the Pirates don’t just lack a third baseman — they lack certainty. Internally, Johnson no longer has a clear defensive or positional lane. Second base is crowded with Nick Gonzales, Nick Yorke, and now Brandon Lowe. Shortstop belongs to Konnor Griffin long-term. And Johnson’s defensive limitations make third base an awkward fit rather than a clean solution.

That’s where the trade speculation starts to feel less like noise and more like inevitability.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently floated Johnson’s name as a potential trade piece in a deal with the New York Mets for either Brett Baty or Mark Vientos. That suggestion wasn’t accidental. It reflects where Johnson now sits in the Pirates’ internal calculus: valuable, but no longer untouchable.

Termarr Johnson could become a trade chip if Pirates look to add a third baseman

Johnson’s profile still has real appeal to other organizations. A 21-year-old with elite plate discipline, improving contact skills, speed, and a track record of being young for every level will always interest teams that believe they can unlock a little more thump. The Pirates may no longer be convinced that power is coming in Pittsburgh, but another club might be.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are at a crossroads where prospect patience and competitive urgency are colliding. They can’t keep pretending third base will sort itself out internally. They can’t keep punting lineup balance while waiting for theoretical upside. And they can’t ignore the fact that Johnson’s value might never be higher than it is right now — before Triple-A pitching further defines exactly what kind of hitter he is.

This is the uncomfortable part of development cycles: the moment when a once-untouchable prospect becomes a means to an end rather than the end itself.

If Johnson stays, 2026 becomes a referendum. He’ll need to prove he can blend his improved contact skills with enough impact to justify everyday at-bats in Pittsburgh. If he’s traded, it will likely be because the Pirates decided clarity at third base mattered more than waiting on a version of Johnson that may never fully arrive.

Either way, the original draft-day hype is no longer the point. The question now isn’t whether Termarr Johnson lived up to impossible comparisons — it’s whether the Pirates can leverage what he’s become into something they desperately need.