Trading Mitch Keller now might be Pirates’ only smart option left

For several years, Mitch Keller was the face of the Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation and their de facto ace. But the Pirates no longer need Keller; they simply benefit from him. That distinction matters.

For once, the Pirates have built a legitimate surplus on the mound with arms like Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft comprising the core of their rotation. With Skenes emerging as a true ace and multiple cost-controlled arms coming behind him, Keller’s innings are replaceable.

His trade value, however, may never be higher. That combination – replaceable production with irreplaceable market value – is what makes Keller expendable and heightens the urgency for the Pirates to trade him before it's too late.

Three more seasons of control (through 2028) on a fixed-cost extension make Keller unusually tradable. Contenders will pay a premium for a front-half starter with price certainty during a period of rising AAVs for mid-rotation arms. Pittsburgh rarely gets to market arms before they get expensive or near free agency, so this is the rare moment where the Pirates are the ones holding the leverage.

League-wide demand for innings and certainty is relentless, especially among would-be contenders that missed on top free agents or fear overpaying 30-something arms. Keller’s profile (durable workload, stabilized performance, no qualifying offer/opt-out drama, fixed cost) will play with win-now teams and budget-sensitive teams alike, widening the bidding pool and boosting return quality.

For a low-payroll team like Pittsburgh, developing pitching is valuable not just for winning, but for creating trade capital. The Pirates have done that successfully for the first time in the Ben Cherington era. Selling high on Keller now is the natural next step: move the established starter while you have cheaper, controllable replacements ready to assume his role.

Trading Mitch Keller can be the pivot that finally fixes Pirates' roster construction problem

The Pirates' best recent organizational wins are on the pitching side, but the glaring hole remains impact bats and dependable everyday position talent. Flipping a front-line innings source for MLB-ready hitters with multi-year control (and/or a premium position prospect) directly addresses the club’s chronic run-scoring problem and shallow everyday lineup.

A single, high-quality starter has declining marginal returns on a club like Pittsburgh that struggles to score. The Pirates routinely fail to turn quality starts into wins, but even one above-average bat could add some runs flip the script. Trading Keller is a means to buy those runs without entering free-agent bidding wars they seldom win.

The smart small-market play is to trade from strength to fix weakness. Keller’s steadiness and contract make him an appealing trade chip precisely because the Pirates can replace his production internally without sinking their 2026 rotation.

The Pirates’ competitive ceiling won’t move until they add bankable, multi-year offense. Keller’s rare blend of quality, durability, years of control and cost certainty gives Pittsburgh the leverage to go buy exactly that, at a price they can’t usually touch in free agency.

If the Pirates want to change the outcome, they have to change the inputs – and flipping Keller for real bats is the cleanest way to do it.