Why Bubba Chandler may not be the Pirates' best pitching prospect

If you take a look at prospect rankings right now, they will universally have Bubba Chandler as the Pittsburgh Pirates’ best pitching prospect. It’s for a good reason, too, given how talented he is. But with his recent struggles at Triple-A, and the Pirates drafting Seth Hernandez in the first round last month and adding him to their portfolio, it’s very possible that Hernandez will eventually overtake Chandler for the title of the Pirates’ best pitching prospect.

Overtaking Chandler in prospect rankings will be no small feat for Hernandez. Chandler isn’t just the Pirates’ best pitching prospect, but is currently ranked as one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the fourth best prospect in the sport, while Baseball America ranks him 15th. Chandler throws in the upper-90s and can hit 101 MPH. He also tosses a curveball, slider, and changeup.

His numbers on the year include a 3.87 ERA, 28% strikeout rate, 31.7% whiff rate, and 0.78 HR/9 ratio, but he has also handed out a walk to 11.4% of opponents. Although Chandler got off to a scorching hot start to the year, with a 2.03 ERA and 35% strikeout rate at the end of May, it has been a struggle for Chandler recently. He has an ERA above 5.00, and his K% has fallen to just 21.4% since June 1. Even early in the year, when Chandler was performing well, he only made it past five innings just once in 11 starts. He has gone 5+ in merely five of 23 total outings. Triple-A does have the automated ball-strike system, so there is a learning curve that could be affecting Chandler.

Amid Chandler's struggles, the Pirates took Hernandez with the sixth overall pick of the 2025 draft. The sort of praise Hernandez is getting makes his future outlook exceptionally bright, and that’s an understatement. Hernandez can hit triple-digits at just 19 years old. His curveball is a high-spin pitch that has clocked in with 3000 RPM at its best. That’s not even his best secondary pitch, with his changeup looking like a potential 70-grade offering. He’ll also toss a slider, which adds a fourth above-average pitch to his arsenal. The cherry on top is his above-average control, which makes him stand out, unlike many other young flamethrowers. 

Seth Hernandez has a real chance of passing Pirates' Bubba Chandler by the start of next season.

Many project Hernandez as a future ace already. Baseball America calls his upside “ace-level,” and compares him to the likes of current-day aces like the Cincinnati Reds’ Hunter Greene, the Washington Nationals’ Mackenzie Gore, and one of the best prospects in the sport heading into this year, Jackson Jobe of the Detroit Tigers. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has provided more rave reviews for Hernandez. He has been compared to former aces like three-time All-Star Josh Beckett and 1998 Rookie of the Year winner Kerry Wood.

BA already has Hernandez as one of the best prospects in the sport, ranking him at No. 27 in their newest edition. The only pitchers ranked ahead of him are Jacob Misiorowski, Chase Burns, Andrew Painter, Thomas White, and Chandler. Both Misiorowski and Burns are in the Major Leagues and will likely no longer be considered prospects by the end of the year. He only has to jump 12 spots to pass Chandler.

The one thing that could save Chandler from being passed up is a strong appearance in the Major Leagues. Chandler has been kept at Triple-A for the entire season, but could get a late-season promotion to the big leagues, even with his recent struggles. If he looks good, even in a brief cameo, that will help him maintain his current prospect rankings, and even potentially rise further up the charts.

Chandler is getting plenty of positive reviews, but his struggles over the last two months are definitely something worth noting. That might be just enough for Hernandez to surpass him in most rankings. It’s very possible that by the start of the 2026 season, we’re looking at Seth Hernandez as the Pirates’ best pitching prospect over Chandler. Hernandez is getting the sort of praise you only see the best of the very best get.