Why Pirates are missing big opportunity keeping Thomas Harrington off roster

With Jared Jones’ current status in the air, Thomas Harrington could've slotted in nicely to the Pirates' rotation, for the time being. It certainly seemed, until Monday, that utilizing Harrington was the direction in which the Pirates were heading. Somehow, though, things got lost along the way, and Pittsburgh choosing Carmen Mlodzinski has denied them a potentially huge payoff, for the time being.

Harrington is eligible for the prospect promotion incentive - or PPI, for short. This was implemented when the 2022 collective bargaining agreement was agreed upon to incentivize teams to promote their MLB-ready prospects early in the year. One requirement is that the player must be on the team’s active roster within the first two weeks of the season.

The second requirement is that the player involved is on at least two of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN’s top 100 lists. Harrington is Pipeline’s 79th-best prospect, while BA has him at No. 74. The last requirement Harrington will need to achieve is to win Rookie of the Year, or place top three in MVP or Cy Young voting before hitting arbitration. If he does this, the Pirates will get an extra draft pick.

Of course, with Harrington not included on Pittsburgh's Opening Day roster, the clock is now ticking on potentially unlocking this portal.

Pirates may have denied themselves an extra draft pick with Thomas Harrington decision

Harrington’s performance last season definitely earns him an Opening Day roster spot. In 117.1 innings, the right-hander had a 2.61 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 0.96 WHIP. He struck out 25.1% of opponents with a 0.69 HR/9 ratio. Notably, he was fantastic at limiting walks, with a 4.1% BB%. Among all minor league pitchers with at least 100 IP, Harrington had the fifth-lowest free pass rate. Overall, there were only 14 minor leaguers with a sub-5% walk rate in 100+ IP, but Harrington was one of four who struck out at least a quarter of his opponents.

Harrington has a myriad of pitches. He isn’t a flamethrower, sitting around 93-94 MPH with decent movement on his four-seam fastball. However, this is a slight uptick in velocity compared to last season at Indianapolis. He also has a two-seamer that comes in around 92-93 MPH, but with more break. His low-80s sweeper has graded out particularly well during spring training this year. Harrington is also armed with a mid-80s cutter, a low-80s splitter (which has less than 1000 RPM on average and induced a whiff a third of the time last year at Indy), and a low-80s curveball that had a whiff rate of nearly 40% last season.

None of Harrington’s offerings project as below average, either. That gives him five to six different offerings he can reliably use at any time. On top of that, he’s shown outstanding command, as indicated by his elite walk rate last season. Harrington receives a 60-grade for his command from FanGraphs, along with a 60-grade for his control by MLB Pipeline's metrics. But Baseball America is the most bullish on the righty, putting his control at a 70 grade, which is plus-plus by definition of the 20-80 scale. 

Not many people have Harrington winning Rookie of the Year or likely have him projected as a Cy Young finalist over the next few seasons. Heck, he might not even be the best rookie pitcher on the Pirates this year. Obviously, the future isn’t set in stone, and it’s not like it’s uncommon for rookies to play above their expectations. Just look at last year, when only one of the three American League Rookie of the Year finalists were eligible for PPI, as the other two were not on enough top 100 prospect lists to open 2024.

If Harrington wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in Cy Young or MVP voting over the next three seasons, he’ll earn the Pirates an extra draft pick, as long as they come to their senses in the coming days. However, while he might have an uphill battle, the Pirates should at least giving Harrington a chance to earn them PPI. Hopefully, he can achieve this goal, and help the Pirates out in multiple ways in the process.