3 upcoming free agents who got unlucky in 2025 and should be on the Pirates’ radar

The Pittsburgh Pirates are obviously not going to be big spenders in the free agent market. That means they’ll have to find value where they can while spending very little. One way they can do that is by pursuing players who aren’t coming off strong seasons.

That may seem counterintuitive if they want to improve the team, but baseball is a sport where luck can play a huge role in a player's struggles or successes. It’s not uncommon for a good player to have a one-year anomaly of a down year.

With that, the Pirates should look into these three players. Despite their poor surface numbers, each free agent was still doing things the way they usually do, methods that have led to very recent success. Their plate discipline and batted ball tendencies showed that their 2025 bottom line likely isn’t indicative of who they will be moving forward.

3 unlucky players from 2025 who should be on Pirates' radar this offseason

Max Kepler

After spending parts of his first 10 MLB seasons with the Minnesota Twins, Max Kepler is coming off one of his worst seasons yet with the Philadelphia Phillies (which looks to be a one-year stint). In 478 plate appearances, Kepler had just a .216/.300/.391 triple-slash, .300 wOBA, and 90 wRC+. He still hit for a decent amount of pop, with 18 home runs and a .175 isolated slugging percentage, but his overall production came in below league average, as he put up a career-worst wRC+.

But Kepler still did a lot of things right in the box. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest mark since 2022, and his 26.6% chase rate was above-average, ranking in the 56th percentile. He also was not very strikeout-prone, with a 19.6 K% and 23.5% whiff percentage. His raw power was as good as ever. Kepler had a 90.8 MPH exit velocity, which was in the 66th percentile, and marked just the second time in his career he’s had an EV over 90 MPH. Meanwhile, his 73rd percentile, 11.6% barrel rate was also the second-best mark of his career.

Expected statistics pegged Kepler as one of the unluckiest hitters in 2025. His .340 xwOBA was in the 62nd percentile, with the 40-point difference being the 14th-widest gap among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. Similarly, his .455 xSLG%, which was also in the 62nd percentile, representing a 64-point gap compared to his actual slugging percentage. That was the 20th-biggest gap in the game between the two stats. Lastly, his .254 xBA may not have been outstanding, but it was the most significant "expectations vs. reality" gap by far, as he had the sixth-widest gulf in MLB between his expected numbers and actual batting average.

Kepler graded out as a league-average defender in 2025, with +1 defensive run saved, zero outs above average, and only -2 fielding run value. While he was one of the best route runners in baseball, coming in at sixth among the 84 qualified outfielders, his jump on flyballs was poor at 32.4 feet, which ranked 73rd.

Kepler is older, as 2026 will be his age-33 season, but the Pirates signing Tommy Pham as their primary left fielder for the 2025 campaign shows they’re willing to overlook that, and perhaps even prize the experience. Despite his advancing age, there are still many promising numbers under the hood for the veteran outfielder. He hit the ball as hard as ever in 2025, maintaining good plate discipline and respectable defense.

Michael Conforto

Another veteran outfielder whose surface numbers might not tell the whole story is Michael Conforto. Conforto signed a one-year deal with the LA Dodgers and had the worst season of his career. In 486 plate appearances, Conforto hit .199/.305/.333 with a .287 wOBA and 83 wRC+. He only hit a dozen home runs with a .134 ISO. While he still walked in 11.5% of his trips to the plate, he also struck out about a quarter of the time with a 24.9% K%.

While he struck out at a mediocre rate, his 24.9% whiff rate wasn’t horrible; in fact, it was slightly better than the league average. In terms of raw power, his 89.9 MPH exit velocity and 9.7% barrel rate were better than average as well. In terms of expected statistics, Conforto was even more unlucky than Kepler.

Conforto’s xwOBA was .341, sporting a 54-point difference between that and his actual wOBA. The only player who had as significant a difference between the two numbers was the Kansas City Royals’ Salvador Perez. It wasn’t the only expected stat in which Conforto ended up with the game's biggest gap, as his .246 xBA was 47 points better than his BA. He, Ben Rice, and the aforementioned Perez had at least a 40-point difference between the two stats. He also had nearly a 100-point difference between his xSLG% (.428) and SLG%. 

The downside is that Conforto’s defense is far worse than Kepler’s. He had -5 defensive runs saved and -8 outs above average last season. He ranked 90th out of the 93 qualified fielders this season in outfield jump. His route running was also below average, ranking 70th. His arm strength, which was in the 68th percentile, was the only part of his defensive game that wasn’t outright poor.

It also doesn't seem like the Dodgers are too eager to bring Conforto back for another season, leaving him off their playoff rosters this October. Regardless, based on how he did when it came to hitting the ball and plate discipline in 2025, he should be in store for a rebound to an above-average hitter in 2026. Next season will also be his age-33 campaign. If the Pirates want a left fielder on a low-cost deal, Conforto would be a good one to bet on.

Of course, he didn't exactly go for a low cost last offseason, signing a $17 million deal. How much of a discount he'll be willing to take after a less-than-banner year will determine the Pirates' level of interest here.

Ty France

The Pirates could use a right-handed hitting complement to first baseman Spencer Horwitz, and Ty France could be a low-cost option. Once an MLB All-Star, the last two seasons haven’t treated France very well. This year, he only hit .257/.320/.360 with a .302 wOBA and a wRC+ of just 92. France has never been a power hitter, but his seven home runs and .104 ISO are both the worst numbers he has put up in any season where he appeared in 100+ games. France struck out at a low 16.9% rate, but his 4.5% free pass percentage was a career-low mark.

Despite the poor production at the plate, France had a career-best 89.4 MPH exit velocity and 7.7% barrel rate. His 21.3% whiff rate is also the third-lowest mark of his career. Making contact at a high rate with a solid exit velocity helped France achieve expected numbers that point to better performance in the future.

France’s xBA was in the 64th percentile at .268. He was also in the 59th percentile of xwOBA, coming in at .337. That is also the highest xwOBA he has put up since 2023. Notably, he did put up career-best numbers in xSLG% at .438 and expected wOBA on contact (xwOBACON) at .371. 

Defensively, France was just nominated as a Gold Glove finalist, and for a good reason. He had +9 DRS and +11 OAA at first base. He should be the frontrunner for the award. France has the third most DRS among any player at his position, and was the only first baseman with double-digit OAA. He was also in the 88th percentile with +7 fielding run value.

France has better splits vs left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching, making him a low-cost platoon option for Horwitz. Considering he only signed for $1 million in 2025 and his overall performance wasn’t excellent, even with solid numbers under the hood and good defense at first base, the Pirates could likely pick him up at a similar rate. He’d likely be the best low-cost option if the Pirates want a legitimate platoon bat to pair with Horwitz.