Dodgers star's career arc shows why Pirates aren’t giving up on Oneil Cruz yet

Oneil Cruz's projected arbitration salary for 2026 is $3.6 million. On the surface, it doesn't sound like much – until you consider that his 2025 season was, by multiple metrics, the worst of his major league career so far.

Cruz batted .200 with a slugging percentage of .378 in 135 games (471 at-bats) in 2025 as his walk and strikeout issues resurfaced. But you don’t cut a lottery ticket just because it hasn’t hit yet — especially when the odds are this rare.

Although the outcomes lagged for Cruz in 2025, the elite tools are still there. When it comes to evaluating his future, perhaps the Pirates should look no further than the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and their treatment of third baseman Max Muncy.

Muncy was a non-factor for years – and then suddenly, at 27, became a middle-of-the-order cornerstone for a championship-caliber Dodgers team. His career arc is exactly the kind of late breakout that justifies the Pirates giving Cruz one more bridge year to see if everything finally clicks.

Max Muncy's redemption arc with Dodgers reveals why Pirates are showing faith in Oneil Cruz

Before 2018, Muncy looked like a busted prospect. He had been released by the Athletics after hitting just .195 over two partial seasons in 2015-16. His career WAR through age 26 was -0.9, and he didn't make a big league roster again until age 27.

But in Muncy, the Dodgers saw what others didn’t – elite bat speed, a disciplined eye and a launch angle profile that could thrive with small adjustments. They stuck with him through spring struggles and tweaked his swing plane, and the results spoke for themselves. in 2018, he was a 4.3 WAR player with 35 homers and a .973 OPS. That wasn’t luck; it was the result of patience, data-driven refinement and a belief that late bloomers can still turn elite tools into production.

Cruz has that same “raw ingredients, incomplete recipe” profile. He’s 26 with extreme power and athleticism that still hasn’t translated into consistent success with the Pirates. Just as Muncy needed the right adjustments and opportunity, Cruz needs refinement – not rejection.

Muncy’s transformation was built on swing efficiency and approach – things the Dodgers could fix because the physical foundation was already elite. Cruz’s physical foundation might be even more extraordinary: a hulking 6-foot-7 frame, 30-homer potential, 40-steal athleticism and the hardest-hit ball in MLB history.

Cruz's raw tools scream "superstar," but the question is whether the plate discipline and contact adjustments ever catch up. That’s the same question Los Angeles asked about Muncy in 2017 – and the answer changed their franchise. Paying Cruz $3.6 million to find out if his development staff can unlock that next level is a no-brainer. That’s backup-outfielder money (for most franchises, anyway) for a potential All-Star.

If Cruz doesn’t figure it out in 2025, what happens? The Pirates pay $3.6 million, trade or non-tender him next winter and move on. That’s pocket change for even a low-payroll club. If he does figure it out – if the approach tightens, the chase rate drops and the defense stabilizes – you’re suddenly looking at a 4-5 WAR center fielder under team control and a centerpiece-caliber player at a position of scarcity.

Cruz’s strikeout issues, chase tendencies, and defensive inconsistency aren’t necessarily fatal flaws; they’re developmental roadblocks. The Pirates’ job is to remove them the same way Los Angeles helped Muncy simplify his swing load, tighten his zone discipline and reinforce confidence with role consistency. The Dodgers didn’t give Muncy an ultimatum; they gave him a roadmap. That’s what Cruz needs – not punishment for unrealized potential.

For a franchise like Pittsburgh, which has long been accused of giving up too early on players (Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, even José Bautista years ago), keeping faith in Cruz sends a rare and important message that the Pirates believe in developing stars, not outsourcing them. Investing in Cruz would mean investing in credibility, and it's a small financial risk with massive reputational upside.

Muncy proved you can go from fringe player to cornerstone with one mechanical breakthrough. Cruz still possesses the kind of power-speed combo teams dream of – and paying $3.6 million to find out if 2025 is his “Muncy moment” is a calculated, responsible gamble.