Henry Davis’ arbitration projection strips away Pirates’ easiest excuse

Henry Davis is about to get a raise, but the Pittsburgh Pirates shouldn't pretend it's the kind of financial burden that complicates their offseason plans. If anything, his projected salary makes the organization's decision about his future considerably more straightforward.

According to MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration projections, Davis is expected to earn just $1.4 million in 2027, his first year of arbitration eligibility. That's hardly an outrageous commitment for a major-league catcher, even one whose offensive struggles have become increasingly difficult to ignore.

And it leaves Pittsburgh with very little room to justify its catching situation through financial excuses.

Davis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, has become one of the more frustrating player-development stories of the Ben Cherington era.

The Pirates drafted him expecting an impact offensive catcher. Instead, Davis has struggled to establish himself as even a league-average hitter. He finished 2026 batting just .172/.272/.313 with 10 home runs and a .585 OPS. Through four major-league seasons, his career batting average sits at .178. Those numbers are unacceptable for a player who was supposed to become a cornerstone of Pittsburgh's lineup.

However, Davis deserves credit for transforming himself defensively. Once considered a questionable long-term fit behind the plate, he has developed into one of the Pirates' most reliable defenders, finishing 2026 with eight defensive runs saved.

At $1.4 million, Davis is a perfectly reasonable investment as a defensive-minded backup catcher. The Pirates would have little reason to non-tender him strictly to save money. But that doesn't mean they should automatically hand him another significant offensive role.

Pirates can afford Henry Davis without making him their solution at catcher

The emergence of Rafael Flores Jr. has fundamentally changed Pittsburgh's catching situation. Acquired from the Yankees in the David Bednar trade, Flores finished 2026 hitting .264/.331/.527 with 11 home runs and an .858 OPS. His late-season production provided exactly the kind of offensive spark Davis has struggled to deliver.

Then there's Endy Rodríguez, who posted an impressive .840 OPS before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. Rodríguez is projected to earn just $1.2 million through arbitration, although his injury history makes counting on him risky.

Combined, Davis and Rodríguez are projected to cost Pittsburgh approximately $2.6 million next season. That's remarkably affordable for two catchers with legitimate major-league experience.

The Pirates have every reason to retain their inexpensive catching depth while determining whether Flores can become their long-term starter. They also have enough uncertainty at the position to justify exploring outside upgrades.

What Pittsburgh absolutely should not do, however, is treat Davis' continued presence as proof that the catching position has been adequately addressed. His defense alone could make the $1.4 million salary worthwhile, but his affordability cannot become another excuse for accepting inadequate offensive production.

The Pirates have spent years waiting for former top prospects to develop into the players they were supposed to become. Davis' arbitration projection means — unfortunately — that they can afford to keep waiting for improvement.

What they cannot afford is to keep building their roster around the assumption that improvement is inevitable.

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