Mitch Keller's regression points to a much bigger Pirates problem

For four years, Mitch Keller has arguably been the Pittsburgh Pirates' most reliable pitcher. Every fifth day, he has taken the ball, logged innings and given the Pirates a chance to win. In an organization that has spent decades searching for some semblance of stability, that made him incredibly valuable.

Now, for the first time since Keller's breakout in 2022, that reliability is disappearing. Keller's latest outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers was another troubling chapter in what has become the worst stretch of his career in more than four years. He allowed five earned runs and four walks, hit two batters and threw two wild pitches in just four innings of work. His command and velocity were all but nonexistent.

Over his last six starts, Keller has allowed 29 earned runs in just 30 innings. His ERA has ballooned from 2.87 in early May to 5.14. He has failed to complete five innings in three consecutive starts, and he is 1-3 with an 8.70 ERA in six starts over the last month.

The easy reaction is to focus solely on Keller, but the harder — and more important — conversation is what his struggles reveal about the Pirates as a whole. Every time Keller struggles, the entire structure starts to wobble. That's not because Keller is irreplaceable, but rather because the Pirates still haven't built enough margin for error around him.

Pittsburgh's bullpen has been one of baseball's biggest disappointments over the last six weeks. The offense remains inconsistent despite legitimate improvements. Injuries have removed key contributors such as Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin from the lineup. Young starters continue to face workload questions and development hurdles. As a result, Keller's regression becomes magnified.

A playoff-caliber team can survive a veteran starter having a rough month. The Pirates cannot. This is a roster construction problem.

Pirates need Mitch Keller to get back to early-season form as prolonged slump continues

It's also worth acknowledging the uncomfortable possibility that Keller's decline may not be temporary.

Pirates writer Alex Stumpf highlighted several concerning trends, including declining velocity, a sinker that is no longer generating ground balls, and a return to using a cutter that largely disappeared after 2024. The sinker was the pitch that transformed Keller's career. It wasn't dominant by itself, but it made everything else work. It created weak contact, set up his breaking pitches and allowed him to pitch efficiently.

Without it, Keller starts looking alarmingly similar to the pitcher he was before his 2022 breakthrough. That's a frightening thought for the Pirates — not because Keller suddenly becomes a bad pitcher, but because they don't have a proven replacement for what he provides.

Paul Skenes is a superstar. Jared Jones has frontline potential. Bubba Chandler's ceiling is enormous. Braxton Ashcraft has flashed brilliance. But what the Pirates don't have is another pitcher who has demonstrated an ability to take the ball 30-plus times and absorb 180 innings year after year.

Those pitchers aren't glamorous, but every contender needs them. That's why Keller's struggles feel different than a simple slump.

Maybe Keller finds the answer. He's done it before. The same pitcher who looked lost early in his career reinvented himself and became an All-Star. But even if he rebounds, the past month has exposed something the Pirates probably didn't want to confront.

For all the progress they've made, they're still one prolonged slump away from seeing significant cracks in the foundation. And right now, those cracks are becoming impossible to ignore.

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