Numbers prove Paul Skenes' Pirates encore was an all-time historic second season

It didn’t feel like Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 Rookie of the Year winner Paul Skenes could follow up his first Major League season with something even better. After all, it was an historic campaign. Skenes put up a 211 ERA+ in 23 outings. For reference, ERA+ is a league and park-adjusted statistic where 100 is always the league average, 101 is 1% better than average, 99 is 1% worse than average, and so on. It was the first time since 1882 that a pitcher had an ERA+ of 210 or better in 20+ starts. But Skenes hasn’t just done similarly well in his now-finalized sophomore campaign; he’s gotten better in most conceivable metrics.

Skenes made 32 starts this year while tallying 187.2 innings of work. In that time, the right-hander pitched to the tune of a 1.97 ERA, 218 ERA+, a 2.37 FIP, and 0.948 WHIP. Skenes struck out nearly 30% of opponents, with a 29.9% strikeout percentage, and only allowed 5.7% to reach via free pass. No starter in baseball was better at limiting home runs than Skenes. His 0.53 HR/9 was the best among all qualified starters, and he was in the 86th percentile of exit velocity (87.8 MPH) and the 85th percentile of barrel rate (5.8%).

Skenes’ first two seasons help him join some elite company. The only other pitcher in baseball history to reach at least a 200 ERA+ in 30 or more starts in their sophomore campaign is Dwight Gooden in 1985 at 229. The difference between Skenes and the third-highest mark for a sophomore season is a wide margin as well. That season belonged to Mark Prior of the Cubs, who had a 179 ERA+ in 2003, a massive 39% difference. 

Pirates' Paul Skenes has only gotten better with an historic sophomore season.

Only nine in total have ever put up a sub-2.00 ERA in their second Major League season while making 30+ starts. The last to do it was Gooden in ‘85. Skenes and Gooden are also the only players to accomplish this feat since the end of World War I. 

Skenes’ WHIP isn’t just great; it's one of the best of all time. At 0.948, Skenes’ mark is the lowest since 1905. Addie Joss with the 1903 Cleveland Napoleons was the last pitcher to post a lower mark. The next closest to Skenes is Walter Johnson’s second Major League season in 1908 at 0.964. 

Very few pitchers have ever gotten strikeouts at the rate Skenes did in his second season. His K/9 of 10.4 is just the seventh time a pitcher has averaged at least ten strikeouts per nine innings in 30+ starts. But of those seven, only Skenes (5.14), Shane Bieber in 2019 (6.48), and Noah Syndergaard in 2015 (5.07) had an average strikeout-to-walk ratio of at least 5.00.

Then there is Skenes’ ridiculous wins above replacement (WAR). Baseball Reference pinned him at 7.6 this year. It’s only the 31st time in history a pitcher put up at least 7.5 bWAR in their second Major League season. It is also only the seventh time this has happened since baseball became integrated in 1947. The last player to reach this milestone in their second season was Kyle Freeland with the 2018 Colorado Rockies. Prior to him, you have to go back 17 seasons to Tim Lincecum's 2008 Cy Young campaign.

There’s no denying that Skenes’ second Big League season was impressive. But once you put it into historic context, you see how it is one of the greatest encores from a pitcher of all time. Skenes posting an ERA+ of nearly 220 and a bWAR approaching +8.0 is utterly insane. He has all but locked up the 2025 National League Cy Young award, and it will be fun to see how he does in his third season with the Pirates in 2026.