Paul Skenes shuts down biggest worry about his fastball velocity dip

When a pitcher arrives in the majors with triple-digit heat and generational expectations, every small dip on the radar gun becomes a talking point. The concern around Paul Skenes’ fastball velocity this season was bound to surface eventually.

Skenes, though, does not sound remotely worried.

The Pittsburgh Pirates ace has not lived at 100 mph the way some fans might have expected when he debuted in May 2024, but that doesn't mean something is wrong. According to Skenes, the lower velocity is actually intentional.

“It's been by design,” Skenes told José Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports.

Cue the collective sigh of relief. Skenes isn't trying to pitch through some hidden injury or other physical limitation. He's making a conscious choice to prioritize availability, efficiency and longevity over the flashiest possible radar-gun reading. And that's exactly what the Pirates should want.

Paul Skenes says he is deliberately dialing back his fastball velocity to prioritize longevity

Skenes is still averaging around 97 mph with his fastball this season, which remains elite by any reasonable standard. He may not be reaching back for 100 as often, but he is still getting results with the pitch. Opposing hitters are batting just .176 against his heater, and his whiff and putaway rates are both better than they were in each of his first two major-league seasons.

Skenes’ value to the Pirates is not tied to how often he lights up the scoreboard with triple digits. It is tied to how often he takes the ball, works deep into games and dominates over the course of a full season. A version of Skenes sitting 97-98 mph for 200 innings is far more valuable than one chasing 100 mph and putting extra stress on his arm every fifth day.

Don Kelly made that point clearly, comparing Skenes’ evolution to what he saw from Justin Verlander. Verlander learned when to pace himself and when to reach back for more, and that helped him build a Hall of Fame-caliber career. Kelly isn't saying Skenes is following the exact same path, but the idea is similar: elite pitchers eventually learn how to be more than throwers.

The Pirates still need more from the team around Skenes. They can't waste starts from one of the best pitchers in baseball because of poor run support, sloppy defense or bullpen breakdowns. But the panic over Skenes’ velocity dip feels misplaced.

Skenes is healthy and still has plenty of velocity when he needs it. And most importantly, he is learning how to make it last.

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