Pirates' bold Kyle Schwarber offer could come back to haunt them with Brandon Lowe

The Pittsburgh Pirates may have accidentally destroyed one of their own potential excuses for letting Brandon Lowe walk.

Last offseason, Pittsburgh reportedly offered Kyle Schwarber a four-year, $125 million contract before he ultimately returned to Philadelphia on a five-year, $150 million deal. The Pirates’ offer would have carried a $31.25 million average annual value — actually slightly higher than the $30 million AAV Schwarber received from the Phillies.

It was an almost unprecedented show of financial aggression from a franchise whose largest free-agent contract remains Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39 million deal.

And now, one offseason later, that offer could make the Pirates’ handling of Lowe considerably more uncomfortable.

Schwarber is 33 years old. Lowe is 32 and won’t turn 33 until July 6, 2027. In other words, if the Pirates were comfortable offering Schwarber four guaranteed years beginning with his age-33 season, it would be awfully difficult to turn around and claim that Lowe’s age makes a three- or four-year commitment too risky.

That's especially true after Lowe just gave Pittsburgh exactly what it had been searching for. He finished his first season with the Pirates batting .260/.331/.493 with 35 home runs, 96 RBI and an .824 OPS over 150 games. He was worth 4.9 fWAR and also produced dramatically better defensive numbers at second base than he had the previous season.

Pirates can't afford to sit out a Brandon Lowe bidding war in free agency

There is an obvious distinction here: Schwarber was coming off a monster 2025 season in which he hit 56 home runs with 132 RBI and a .928 OPS. Nobody should argue that Lowe automatically deserves Schwarber's $125 million offer simply because they're roughly the same age. But that's also not really the point.

The Schwarber pursuit established what the Pirates were apparently willing to do when they identified the right veteran hitter. They were willing to pay more than $30 million annually. They were willing to guarantee four years. And, most importantly for the Lowe conversation, they were willing to accept the aging risk that comes with paying a player through his mid-30s.

So if Lowe's market settles anywhere near the three-year, $60 million range that has been floated — or even if Pittsburgh has to add a fourth year to separate itself from competing offers — the Pirates can't credibly act as though that type of contract exists somewhere beyond their financial comfort zone.

That's substantially less per season than Pittsburgh was prepared to give Schwarber. And unlike Schwarber last winter, the Pirates don't have to imagine how Lowe would fit in Pittsburgh. They already know.

General manager Ben Cherington called Lowe “everything we could have hoped for” both as a player and in the clubhouse and said it “would be a great outcome” if he returned. Lowe, meanwhile, has said he loved his time in Pittsburgh and that he would be “all ears” if the Pirates wanted to discuss another contract.

That doesn't mean Lowe is obligated to take Pittsburgh's offer, nor does it mean the Pirates should hand him a blank check. Free agency involves another willing party, and another team could always push his price somewhere Pittsburgh isn't comfortable going.

But there is a massive difference between losing a bidding war and deciding not to seriously participate in one.

For years, the Pirates could point to the economics of baseball whenever a free agent reached a financial tier they simply didn't enter. Then they reportedly offered Schwarber $125 million. Once you've shown you're willing to spend at that level for the right player, it's much harder to retreat behind the same old explanations when a player who actually proved he can thrive in Pittsburgh reaches free agency.

The Pirates didn't land Schwarber, but that offer still established a standard. Now Lowe may force them to live up to it.

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