Pirates can’t afford to ignore the obvious Paul Skenes decision anymore

The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent the past several weeks insisting that Paul Skenes is healthy. At this point, that almost doesn’t matter.

Whether Skenes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, ordinary fatigue or simply the accumulated workload of three major-league seasons, the Pirates have reached the point where the responsible decision is the same: shut him down.

There is increasingly little left to gain by continuing to send Skenes to the mound. His 2026 numbers — a 9-11 record, 3.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP — would be perfectly respectable for most pitchers. But the problem isn’t simply that he has failed to replicate his historic first two seasons. It’s how dramatically the pitcher himself has changed.

The overpowering fastball that routinely sat around 99 mph has disappeared for stretches. His velocity has continued trending downward, culminating in a career-low 95.7 mph average against Miami on Tuesday. He didn’t throw a single pitch harder than 97 mph. His command has become inconsistent. His efficiency has deteriorated. Hitters are making more comfortable swings against him.

Skenes was removed after five innings and only 65 pitches in Miami despite allowing one earned run. Manager Don Kelly said the decision wasn’t injury-related and that going to the bullpen gave Pittsburgh its best chance to win, which may have been true at the time. But if the Pirates no longer believe their supposedly healthy ace gives them their best chance to win after 65 pitches, that's hardly reassuring either.

Pirates may have no choice but to shut down Paul Skenes if struggles contine

Pittsburgh can keep searching for harmless explanations, but eventually the organization has to recognize what is directly in front of it.

The Pirates entered this season expecting to contend. Instead, they have collapsed in the second half and are rapidly running out of time to salvage anything meaningful from 2026. Continuing to push Skenes every fifth day for a fading playoff chase makes increasingly little sense.

There's no trophy for squeezing another five or six starts out of him. There could, however, be enormous consequences if the Pirates ignore warning signs and something actually goes wrong.

Skenes is the most important player in the organization and one of the few legitimate franchise-changing talents the Pirates have developed in decades. Whatever Pittsburgh hopes to accomplish in 2027, 2028 and beyond becomes substantially more difficult if Skenes isn't healthy and dominant. That should outweigh whatever microscopic benefit comes from having him make another start in August.

The Pirates don't even need to admit something is wrong. Call it workload management, protecting him for next season, or whatever makes everyone comfortable. Just stop pretending there's something left to prove.

Skenes has given the Pirates enough innings this year. Now Pittsburgh needs to protect the innings still ahead of him.

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