Pirates could trade another starting pitcher soon, but not the one you might think

Let’s get this out of the way right up front: the Johan Oviedo trade didn’t just shuffle the Pittsburgh Pirates’ depth chart. It reshuffled their entire calculus on who they can and cannot afford to move next.

Despite every national rumor mill tossing Mitch Keller’s name around like he’s the last rotation arm in Pittsburgh, the truth is this: If the Pirates trade any starter next … it’s far more likely to be someone like Thomas Harrington than Keller.

Keller certainly isn't untouchable, but Pittsburgh's latest trade with the Boston Red Sox may have made him less movable. Trading Oviedo left the Pirates with exactly two pitchers in the organization who have more than one season of MLB service time: Keller and Paul Skenes. Suddenly, the asking price for Keller –– which was already high to begin with –– got even higher.

If the Pirates are going to make another notable trade — for a bat, a reliever, a versatile infielder, whatever — the cost is going to have to come from their deep pool of pitching prospects. In guys like Harrington, Hunter Barco, Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly, the Pirates finally have waves. And waves are meant to be spent.

Thomas Harrington (not Mitch Keller) makes sense as Pirates' next pitching trade chip

Harrington sits right at the intersection of high prospect value, years of control remaining, a strong development reputation and not yet critical to the MLB rotation picture. That combination is more likely to get you traded than protected.

Harrington is also the type of pitcher teams covet: command-over-stuff, strike-thrower, breakout potential, projects as a mid-rotation starter. You put him as the second piece in a trade for a controllable MLB bat? That phone call gets picked up.

Harrington's value is peaking. He’s in that window where a pitching prospect looks shiny enough for other teams to dream big, but not risky enough for the Pirates to be scared of losing a future ace. (If anyone in the system has that label, it’s Barco — whose value they won’t sell low before he pitches a full healthy year.)

The Pirates could run a rotation of Skenes–Keller–Bubba Chandler–Braxton Ashcraft–Mike Burrows today, with Jared Jones entering back into the fold as soon as he’s healthy. Harrington is depth, not necessity.

Like it or not, Keller is the only stabilizer this staff has outside of Skenes. If the Pirates actually want to improve — not reset — they probably can’t lose Keller and Oviedo in the same offseason. A Keller trade would now require replacing two veteran arms, and that's spending territory. (Bob Nutting fainted just reading this.)

The Oviedo trade clarified something Pirates fans needed to see: this regime is finally ready to leverage prospect depth for major-league-impact bats. But they aren’t blowing up the rotation to do it. They’re not resetting the timeline. They’re not trading Keller unless someone offers a Godfather package.

What comes next is far more predictable — and honestly, far more reasonable. One or more of Harrington, Kelly or Dotel gets moved, another MLB-ready bat arrives, and Keller stays because he has to.

The Pirates have their wave of young arms. Now they have to turn one of those waves into a hitter who helps right now. And that wave is now far less likely to be Keller, no matter what the national rumor mill keeps saying.