There's a necessity behind the Pirates' potential trade of Mitch Keller if they want to move forward

General manager Ben Cherington wants to improve the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2026, but he also doesn't anticipate the team's payroll increasing year over year from 2025. If both those things are true, then the club has just one viable option: Trade Mitch Keller this offseason.

Every million that the Pirates owe Keller is a million not available for patching glaring offensive holes, and with ownership unwilling to expand payroll, Cherington’s hands are tied. Keeping Keller means sacrificing the ability to field a competent lineup.

This is the kind of cold, pragmatic financial math that exposes the paradox at the center of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ “competitive window.” On paper, Keller should be a foundational arm –– a 200-inning, homegrown All-Star who anchors the rotation behind Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler. But once you map out the Pirates' actual budget realities, the numbers tell a much harsher truth: Keller’s $16.5 million salary simply doesn’t fit inside a front office still operating under Bob Nutting’s austerity ceiling.

The Pirates have no choice but to trade Mitch Keller if they want to patch their other roster holes

The Pirates’ payroll math makes Keller’s salary unsustainable. Even by the most conservative estimates, the team is staring at roughly $123-125 million in player-related expenditures before adding a single external piece. Once fixed costs (benefits, draft/international pools, emergency funds, Bryan Reynolds’ deal, Keller’s $16.5 million and expected arbitration raises) are subtracted, that leaves just over $22 million to fill several major roster holes. That’s not room to operate; that’s a straightjacket.

By trading Keller, Cherington would recapture about $16.5 million in flexibility, nearly doubling his functional offseason budget to roughly $38.6 million. That’s the difference between scraping the bottom of the market and actually addressing multiple needs with legitimate MLB talent.

At its core, it's basic economics – the opportunity cost of one pitcher vs. an entire supporting cast. At his price, Keller is a luxury item on a roster still lacking basics including a starting-caliber third baseman, a left fielder, a designated hitter, a lefty reliever and a proven late-inning arm.

Keeping Keller means punting on at least two of those categories. Moving him would allow Cherington to spread the money across, say, a mid-rotation starter ($10-12 million), a lefty reliever ($4-5 million), and a contact-oriented bat ($8-10 million). That’s a far better use of limited capital for a club trying to balance its roster rather than overpay one slot.

The Pirates have made it abundantly clear – through both behavior and precedent – that they do not pay veteran market value for pitching. Keller, entering his age-30 season in 2026 with eventual free-agency leverage, sits completely outside their comfort zone.

From a front-office standpoint, it’s more “logical” (if cynical) to cash out now –– while Keller’s value is peaking — and roll with a rotation headlined by Skenes, Chandler and a carousel of cost-controlled arms (Jared Jones, Hunter Barco, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, etc.). It’s the same pattern that’s defined every previous Pirates “reboot:" trade the expensive, keep the controllable.

Fans will understandably view a Keller trade as another sell-off, but in the financial logic of this front office, it’s framed as redistribution: convert one high-salary, mid-value asset into three or four affordable contributors who collectively replace more WAR at half the price.

If Cherington nails the return –– an MLB-ready bat plus upper-level pitching — the Pirates could arguably improve their balance even if they lose a reliable starter. It’s harsh logic, but it’s how this front office survives under Nutting’s payroll model.

The irony here is that Keller became too good for the Pirates’ budget. His reliability, durability and leadership are exactly what a mid-market club needs to bridge from rebuilding to winning, but those traits come with a dollar figure the Pirates refuse to accommodate.

Keller no longer “fits” in Pittsburgh because the Pirates’ self-imposed ceiling leaves no room for both a market-rate veteran pitcher and the bare necessities of a competitive roster. It’s not a baseball decision; it’s an economic one, and that’s precisely what makes it so frustrating. In a normal organization, Keller would be a cornerstone. In Pittsburgh’s, he’s a casualty of a payroll philosophy that rewards cost-control over continuity.