Pirates have a clear Jared Jones path after Chase Burns' $105 million Reds deal

The Cincinnati Reds just provided the Pittsburgh Pirates with another reminder that small-market teams don't have to wait until their best young arms are approaching free agency to make a serious financial commitment.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Reds and right-hander Chase Burns have agreed to a seven-year, $105 million contract that will keep the 23-year-old in Cincinnati through the 2033 season. The straight guarantee contains no club options or deferred money and is the largest deal ever awarded to a pitcher with fewer than four years of major-league service time.

Burns has earned his deal by rapidly establishing himself as one of baseball’s best young starters. He enters the second half of the 2026 season with an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA and 118 strikeouts against 37 walks in 102.2 innings. Opponents have hit just .206 against him, and he earned his first All-Star selection this year.

The Wake Forest product has an arsenal that is appropriately overpowering. His four-seam fastball has averaged 97.8 mph this season and touched 100.7, while he has thrown his slider more than 37% of the time. He has produced a 29.7% strikeout rate against a manageable 7.9% walk rate.

That description should sound somewhat familiar to Pirates fans. Jared Jones also reached the majors as a hard-throwing right-hander whose fastball-slider combination immediately looked capable of overwhelming major-league hitters.

As a 22-year-old rookie in 2024, Jones recorded a 4.14 ERA with 132 strikeouts and only 39 walks across 121 2/3 innings. His underlying numbers were even more encouraging, including a 3.97 expected ERA, a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate.

The obvious separator is health. Jones missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing internal brace surgery on his right elbow. He didn't return to the Pirates until May 29 of this season, and Pittsburgh has understandably managed his workload carefully since then.

Jones' results have been uneven during his first eight starts back, with a 4.37 ERA over 35 innings. But the indicators underneath that number are encouraging. Jones has struck out 27.1% of the batters he has faced, walked 7.6% and produced a 3.58 expected ERA.

Jones also recently delivered six perfect innings with eight strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves before the Pirates removed him after 77 pitches. That performance was a reminder of what he can become when everything is working.

Chase Burns’ $105 million Reds deal gives Pirates a roadmap for Jared Jones

The Burns contract is not yet a perfect comparison. Burns is younger, healthier and currently performing like a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Jones has never completed a full major-league season and must prove that his surgically repaired elbow can withstand a starter’s workload. But the talent gap isn't nearly as large as the difference between their current contracts would suggest.

Burns has thrown approximately 146 major-league innings between 2025 and 2026. Jones has thrown roughly 157 between 2024 and 2026. Neither pitcher has a long track record, but both have already demonstrated the velocity, swing-and-miss ability and command necessary to become a frontline starter.

If Jones finishes this season healthy and follows it with a full year of high-level production, a nine-figure extension would no longer sound unrealistic.

He would probably need more proof than Burns because of the elbow surgery. One strong stretch won't erase the injury risk, and the Pirates would undoubtedly use that history during negotiations. Jones must first demonstrate that he can consistently provide quality innings rather than merely show flashes of dominance between workload restrictions.

The larger point, though, is that Cincinnati did not wait until every question had been answered. Pitchers always carry injury risk. Burns could get hurt next month, next season or three years from now. The Reds still decided that the potential reward of securing an ace through his prime outweighed the danger of guaranteeing $105 million. That should resonate in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates have spent years attempting to assemble a collection of young starters capable of sustaining a contender. Paul Skenes is the headliner, but Jones’ ceiling remains an important part of that vision. If he returns to his pre-injury trajectory, Pittsburgh should explore what it would cost to keep him beyond his team-controlled years.

Burns’ contract has established the new divisional benchmark. Now Jones has an opportunity to prove he belongs in the same conversation — and the Pirates may eventually have to prove they are as serious about retaining their young pitching as the Reds just showed they are.

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