Pirates' Mitch Keller just admitted something that makes his $38.8 million future even more complicated

Mitch Keller's disappointing 2026 season might have been more complicated than his statistics suggest. Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh Pirates, that only makes the decisions surrounding his future more difficult.

In an October 23 interview with MLB.com, Keller acknowledged that he never felt completely healthy or comfortable throughout a season that ended prematurely because of a right arm teres major injury.

The veteran right-hander finished with a 6-8 record and a 5.29 ERA across 22 starts before landing on the injured list in August. He also acknowledged that physical limitations affected his performance, offering some context for what was arguably his most disappointing season since establishing himself as a reliable major league starter.

Keller's struggles might not reflect the pitcher Pittsburgh can expect in 2027, but there's a rather expensive problem with that possibility. Keller is owed $18.4 million next season and another $20.4 million in 2028. That's $38.8 million remaining on a contract that increasingly looks difficult to justify, particularly for an organization that has historically operated with limited payroll flexibility.

The worst part? The Pirates might have already missed their best opportunity to do something about it.

Pirates' decision to keep Mitch Keller could become an expensive mistake

Keller's name circulated in trade rumors throughout 2025, with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs among the teams reportedly expressing interest.

At the time, Keller was a dependable innings-eater with multiple years of contractual control remaining. Pittsburgh ultimately held onto him, believing his value to its rotation outweighed the potential return.

A year later, that calculation looks considerably different. Keller is coming off a significant injury and his worst ERA since 2021. Any interested team would be assuming nearly $39 million in financial commitments while betting that the 30-year-old can rediscover his previous form.

The Pirates could still trade him, but doing so would likely require accepting a diminished return, absorbing part of his remaining salary or attaching another asset to facilitate a deal. None of those possibilities is particularly appealing for a franchise that needs to improve its roster without sacrificing more young talent.

Keeping Keller, however, presents another challenge. Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler have established themselves as Pittsburgh's most promising rotation pieces. All four could reasonably enter 2027 ahead of Keller in the organizational hierarchy.

That leaves the Pirates with a potentially uncomfortable question: What happens if their highest-paid starting pitcher is also their fifth-best option?

There's certainly value in keeping an experienced starter around, particularly given the workload concerns and injury histories surrounding Pittsburgh's younger arms. And Keller deserves an opportunity to demonstrate that his 2026 struggles were an aberration rather than the beginning of a decline. But that opportunity can't come with a guaranteed rotation spot simply because of his contract.

The Pirates are coming off their first winning season since 2018. Their objective should be building a rotation capable of reaching the postseason, not accommodating the financial commitments of previous offseasons.

Keller's admission provides reason to believe a rebound is possible, but it doesn't erase the financial risk or the opportunity Pittsburgh potentially squandered by holding onto him when his trade value was considerably higher.

The Pirates can't undo their decision not to trade Keller. Whether that decision continues to dictate how they construct their rotation, however, is still under their control. And with $38.8 million still on the books, that's a distinction general manager Ben Cherington can't afford to ignore.

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