Pirates' newest free-agent target could help Ben Cherington recreate his best offseason formula

The Pittsburgh Pirates appear increasingly interested in borrowing from the Houston Astros' pitching playbook. Their latest potential free-agent target suggests that strategy could extend beyond the coaching staff.

In a November 3 free-agent preview, MLB.com's Aiden Stepansky identified former Astros reliever Bryan Abreu as a potential fit for Pittsburgh. The connection makes plenty of sense, particularly given the Pirates' recent efforts to build a pitching infrastructure influenced by Houston.

But Abreu also represents a fascinating test of whether familiarity with a coaching staff is enough to justify investing in a pitcher whose recent performance raises legitimate concerns. The 29-year-old right-hander spent several seasons working with Pirates pitching coach Bill Murphy in Houston, including the Astros' World Series championship campaign in 2022.

That season, Abreu posted a 1.94 ERA across 60 1/3 innings before delivering another 11 1/3 scoreless innings in the postseason. He followed that performance with three consecutive seasons of at least 100 strikeouts, establishing himself as one of baseball's most dependable high-leverage relievers. A pitcher with that kind of pedigree would certainly be appealing to a Pirates team coming off its first winning season since 2018.

And the connections don't stop with Murphy. Pittsburgh recently hired Sean Buchanan, who spent the previous two seasons as the pitching coach for Houston's Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land, to work in the upper levels of its minor league system.

Pirates' Astros connections could make Bryan Abreu an intriguing rebound candidate

The move further strengthens an organizational connection that began with Murphy's arrival ahead of the 2026 season. Now, the Pirates have an opportunity to reunite Murphy with a pitcher he helped develop into an elite bullpen weapon.

It's an intriguing extension of the approach that helped Cherington assemble a winning roster last offseason. Rather than relying exclusively on expensive, high-profile acquisitions, Pittsburgh found success by identifying established players who could provide considerable value in the right environment.

Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn and Gregory Soto all helped improve the Pirates' roster in 2026, even if their individual contributions varied. Abreu could theoretically fit a similar formula: acquire an established veteran whose value has declined, place him in a familiar environment and hope the results resemble his previous production.

The problem is that Abreu's underlying numbers suggest his decline might be more than a temporary setback. After posting a 2.28 ERA in 2025, Abreu finished 2026 with a 3.73 ERA across 66 appearances. His strikeout rate dropped from 35.5% to 29.9%, while his walk rate jumped from 10.5% to a concerning 15.3%.

His average four-seam fastball velocity declined from 97.3 mph to 95.7 mph, and his 4.12 expected ERA also suggests his actual results might have been somewhat better than his underlying performance warranted.

There were encouraging signs, however. After a disastrous April, Abreu recovered to post a 2.19 ERA over his final 55 appearances. That improvement provides reason to believe he could still be a productive late-inning option, even if his days of consistently overwhelming hitters are behind him.

The question for Pittsburgh is how much that potential rebound would cost. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projected Abreu to receive a one-year, $10.5 million contract, which wouldn't be insignificant for a Pirates organization facing several other roster needs this offseason.

With Mason Montgomery and Luke Weaver already providing dependable late-inning options, Pittsburgh doesn't necessarily need to spend eight figures annually on another reliever whose effectiveness comes with substantial uncertainty. And while Murphy's familiarity with Abreu could provide an advantage, familiarity alone doesn't guarantee that he'll regain his previous velocity or command.

The Pirates should absolutely leverage their growing connections to Houston, but there's a difference between identifying undervalued talent and paying a premium to recreate past success. Cherington's best offseason moves have worked because the expected production justified the investment, not simply because the Pirates believed they could unlock something other teams couldn't.

If Pittsburgh can acquire Abreu at a reasonable price and Murphy helps him rediscover his previous form, the organization could add another valuable piece to a bullpen with postseason aspirations. But if the Pirates end up paying for the pitcher Abreu was in 2023-25 rather than the one he was in 2026, those Astros connections might not be enough to make the gamble worthwhile.

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