Pirates made the pitching change their stars wanted, but early returns are concerning

It's always dangerous to reduce a pitching staff’s struggles to one coach. Pitchers are responsible for execution. Injuries happen, regression happens, and game-planning only goes so far when fastballs miss spots, sliders back up, relievers walk the yard, and defense behind them turns outs into extra pitches.

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching issues in 2026 aren't solely Bill Murphy’s fault, and it would be unfair to suggest otherwise. But it's also becoming harder to ignore the larger trend.

The Pirates made a significant change over the offseason when they moved on from Oscar Marin and hired Murphy as pitching coach. By all accounts, this was the change many of the Pirates’ most important arms wanted. The organization listened and brought in a coach with a strong reputation from his time with the Houston Astros.

The hope was that Murphy could help take a talented staff from promising to elite. Halfway through June, the early returns aren't exactly inspiring.

The most noticeable trend is the broad decline in fastball velocity. According to Baseball Savant, Paul Skenes is down from 98.1 mph on his average fastball in 2025 to 97.0 in 2026. Mitch Keller is down from 93.7 to 93.0. Carmen Mlodzinski has dropped from 96.0 to 94.7. Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery have all taken smaller steps backward as well.

That's not to say that every pitcher needs to throw harder every year or that velocity is the only measure of effectiveness. In some cases, pulling back can be intentional. A complete pitcher is one who can lean on a full arsenal rather than survive on triple digits alone.

Keller has already said publicly that dialing things back has been part of his approach this season, and that's not automatically a bad thing. He has never been a pitcher who can afford to live on velocity alone anyway. But when his results regress at the same time, it becomes fair to ask whether the new plan is actually helping.

For a pitcher like Skenes, with his workload, importance and long-term value to the franchise, there is an obvious desire to avoid the kind of arm injury that has derailed so many young starters. If part of the plan is to take a little off the fastball, diversify the pitch mix and reduce the physical toll, the logic is understandable.

The problem is that the trade-off has to produce something. And right now, the Pirates don't look like a staff that has sacrificed velocity in exchange for better command, sharper sequencing or more efficient run prevention. They just look like they've lost some of their margin for error without gaining enough elsewhere to compensate.

Bill Murphy's first season as Pirates pitching coach hasn't gone according to plan, but it's still too early to panic

The concern isn't limited to one starter or one reliever. The 10 pitchers on this year’s Pirates staff who also threw at least 30 innings last season have almost all regressed, many of them significantly, in both ERA and FIP.

Individual regression can be explained away, but staff-wide regression invites a bigger conversation. That conversation has to include Murphy.

Again, that's not the same as saying Murphy is the problem. The Astros’ pitching staffs were consistently strong under him, and his reputation didn't come out of nowhere. There is still a half-season left for adjustments to take hold. Pitchers can find feel, velocity can tick back up, and roles can stabilize. A few good weeks can change the temperature of the entire discussion. But as things stand in mid-June, the concern is real.

The Pirates’ rotation hasn't been as dominant as expected. The bullpen has been one of their clearest weaknesses. Several pitchers who were supposed to help form the foundation of a legitimate contender have taken steps backward. And the club’s overall run prevention picture has gotten worse in ways that go beyond the mound.

Pittsburgh ranked 10th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2025. This season, they've slipped to 18th. A pitching staff that is taking something off the fastball and pitching more to contact needs to be supported by cleaner defense. If the plan is to lean more on movement, sequencing and contact management, then the defense behind those pitchers has to convert batted balls into outs. The Pirates haven't done that consistently enough.

That makes it difficult to separate the coaching change from the roster construction, the defensive regression, and the players’ own performance. All of those pieces are connected when an entire staff starts moving in the wrong direction.

The most frustrating part for the Pirates is that the rotation was supposed to be one of the safest areas of the team. The bullpen had enough talent to believe it could be patched together into something functional. Pitching was supposed to be the backbone of a club trying to remain relevant in the National League playoff race. Instead, it has become one of the biggest questions hanging over the season.

The Pirates gave their pitchers the change they wanted. They brought in the coach with the résumé and embraced a new direction. Maybe, with more time, that decision will still prove correct. Maybe this looks very different by August. But right now, the early returns are concerning.

The Pirates don't need a scapegoat, but they do need answers. And when almost every returning pitcher on the staff is regressing at the same time, it's fair to ask whether the new pitching direction is working the way everyone hoped it would.

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