Pirates offseason overhaul sets up a high-stakes experiment in 2026

After a year in which the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense was absolutely abysmal at times, drastic changes were needed. That meant prioritizing offensive excellence, even at the cost of defensive prowess. It meant trading from their surplus of young pitching talent by sending out Mike Burrows in order to land slugging second baseman Brendan Lowe.

The Pirates also faced an unfortunate reality. Their status as perennial bottom feeders with a penchant for penny pinching caused them to lose out on several top free-agent targets. That meant adding guys like Ryan O'Hearn, who may need to play outside of his primary position in order to make all of the pieces fit. Simply put, getting a competent hitter was more important than worrying about where his glove could make the biggest impact.

The Pirates were one of the best teams at preventing runs from scoring in 2025. The pitching staff's 3.76 ERA ranked seventh in the majors. Pittsburgh fielders posted a collective 17 outs above average, good for eighth in the bigs.

The pitching still has the potential to be very good, but the defense behind the hurlers might not be. The Pirates knowingly traded some defensive aptitude for offensive firepower.

The question now will be, is this a gamble that will truly pay off? Or is this simply swapping one set of problems for another while the franchise stays stuck in the mud?

The Pirates are taking a risk by trading defensive excellence for offensive production

Travis Sawchick of MLB.com did an in-depth analysis of how teams that have made similar trade-offs over the past decade, to see if the risk is worth it. The short version of the story is that — although the results were slightly mixed — when they hit, they hit big.

Not all clubs that took this risk saw a year-over-year improvement in wins, but some examples of teams that did include the 2017 World Series Champion Houston Astros, the 2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox, the 2023 NL Pennant-winning Arizona Diamondbacks, and the 2025 AL Pennant-winning Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are who Pittsburgh would like to emulate. The 2025 AL champs raised their win total by 20, going from 74-88 in 2024 to 94-68 last season. So on the whole, it seems like the strategy can pay off, but by how much truly depends.

Things aren't always so cut and dry, either. Let's say you downgrade your defense at first base and right field substantially, but still have average or better up-the-middle defenders. In that case, you'll probably see a benefit. But let's say it's the up-the-middle positions that take the hit, and now you might be in trouble.

There's also something else that could be at play for the Pirates. They have a bunch of young players who theoretically could improve defensively to offset some of these losses. For example, Oneil Cruz worked out with Kevin Kiermaier this winter in hopes that the Platinum Glover could help turn around his center field defense.

Cruz ranked 14th out of 17 qualified center fielders with exactly zero outs above average last season. If he makes strides here, it will be impactful.

What about Konnor Griffin coming up to play shortstop? There are some who believe he could win a Glove from day one. Right now, Jared Triolo is the likely starter at third base, and while his bat is a question, his glove is not. Bryan Reynolds saw an uptick in his defensive performance after adding a "tennis hop" to improve his reaction time. He'll be moving back to left field, where he's had success before.

Elsewhere on the field, there are other guys who you can buy into improving defensively year over year. Overall, there's still a defensive trade-off, but it might not be stark enough to erase the contributions of the offensive upgrades. As things stand now, this looks like a solid, calculated gamble, but we won't know for sure until the games start being played.