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In the past year, Paul Skenes became an MLB All-Star, National League Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young Award finalist – and he hasn't even played a full Major League season yet. How can the Pittsburgh Pirates phenom possibly top that in 2025?
Well, according to FanGraphs Steamer projections, he'll do it by leading the league in both ERA (2.80) and strikeouts (242) this upcoming season.
Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players, as well as using pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. The projections, which are updated daily on FanGraphs, predict each player's numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.
Skenes went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts in 2024, setting a Pirates franchise record for a rookie with 170 strikeouts over 133 innings pitched. He was also the first pitcher in MLB history to have an ERA below 2.20 and more than 150 strikeouts in his first 21 games, and the second pitcher since 1913 to have an ERA below 2.00 through his first 22 appearances.
In addition to posting a 2.80 ERA and 242 strikeouts, Steamer projects Skenes to finish with a 13-9 record in 2025.
Pirates' Paul Skenes is projected to lead MLB in categories that would make history
As if leading the league in two of the three primary pitching categories wasn't enough, Steamer's projections – if accurate – would carve out yet another place for Skenes in baseball's history books.
According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com, Skenes would be the fourth-youngest to lead all qualified MLB pitchers in ERA for a season since earned runs became official in both leagues in 1913. Skenes will be 23 years and 122 days old on the final day of the 2025 campaign.
The only pitchers to lead the league in ERA at a younger age than Skenes will be are Dwight Gooden in 1985 (20 years, 324 days), Mark Fidrych in 1976 (22 years, 50 days) and Dutch Leonard in 1914 (22 years, 177 days). The only pitcher to lead the league in both ERA and strikeouts in a single season before turning 24 is Gooden.
As Langs put it, Skenes' historic rookie season was "just an appetizer," and we can't wait for the main course.
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