Pirates’ starting rotation gamble proves they learned nothing in 2025

Two years ago, Carmen Mlodzinski spent part of his offseason tracking down the source of a splitter that might have saved his career. The pitch traveled from Kirby Yates to David Bednar to Mlodzinski — and by the end of 2025, it turned into a legitimate weapon.

That’s the good story.

The frustrating story? The Pirates appear ready to ignore what 2025 already told them. Because allowing Mlodzinski to compete for a starting job again doesn’t feel like development; it feels like denial.

Last spring, in light of the injury to Jared Jones, the Pirates granted Mlodzinski’s wish to start. It didn’t go well. Through nine starts, Mlodzinski posted a 5.67 ERA with five homers allowed. He saw his velocity dip and his pitch shape flatten out.

The most damning evidence of all was that Mlodzinski dominated hitters the first time through the order (.574 OPS against) and then got obliterated the second time (1.029 OPS). That’s not a small tweak issue. That’s a role issue.

When the Pirates moved Mlodzinski back to the bullpen and let him lean into the splitter and curveball, everything changed. He posted a 2.12 ERA over his final 25 games, allowed just three homers, and struck out 61 batters in 59 1/3 innings. His splitter generated a 43.1% whiff rate, and he only allowed singles off his curveball.

That improvement wasn’t random variance. That was role optimization. And now, the Pirates seemingly want to undo it.

Pirates are about to run back a 2025 mistake with Carmen Mlodzinski and hope for a different ending

Yes, the Pirates need innings. Outside of Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, there isn’t a proven, full-season MLB workload in the rotation. Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft have talent, but asking them to shoulder 170+ innings right now is optimistic at best.

Also, the Pirates' rotation still has zero left-handers. That's a problem that even Mlodzinski can't help them solve. But here’s the bigger problem: forcing a bullpen weapon into a starting experiment because you lack depth doesn't solve a roster issue. It actually creates two.

If Mlodzinski fails as a starter again, the rotation remains unstable and the bullpen loses one of its most effective multi-inning weapons. It's a double whammy.

Mlodzinski himself admitted the key challenge in transitioning from a relief role to a starting role — increased exposure — and that challenge hasn't gone away. His splitter and curveball are excellent chase pitches that thrive off fastball velocity and deception. But holding velocity and pitch shape over 90+ pitches is an entirely different test.

Last year, once hitters saw Mlodzinski twice, the magic disappeared. That's the difference between reliever stuff and starter sustainability. The Pirates saw the data and lived the results — and yet, here we are again, acting like one offseason of refinement erases all kinds of structural evidence.

The splitter story speaks to Mlodzinski's work ethic and growth, and he deserves credit for working to reinvent himself. But the lesson of 2025 wasn’t that he needed a splitter. It was that he's lethal in the bullpen but vulnerable in extended outings.

Ultimately, this isn't really about Mlodzinski. It's about organizational learning. The Pirates simply cannot stretch a reliever into a starter instead of acquiring one, hope internal growth solves a roster deficiency, and act surprised when exposure catches up.

If the Pirates truly absorbed what last season taught them, they would lock Mlodzinski into a high-leverage or multi-inning relief role, add a legitimate starting option — preferably a left-handed one — externally, and stop asking internal arms to stretch beyond their optimal usage.

Instead, they’re gambling again. And if the gamble backfires, it will be proof that the Pirates learned nothing in 2025.