A bold mock Aroldis Chapman trade proposal that would fix the Pirates' outfield

Outfield has clearly been an issue for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year. Jack Suwinski hasn’t been able to follow up his 26-homer campaign, Edward Olivares was optioned after his disappointing start to the season, and Michael A. Taylor also hasn’t been able to replicate anything close to his 21-homer campaign last year. Bryan Reynolds has been about the only useful outfielder the Pirates have, as of right now.

But the trade market is active, there are plenty of potential outfielders still out there, and relievers are fetching a lot right now. The Pirates have one talented rental reliever they could look to move, along with a lot of pitching prospects that would draw interest. 

Pirates acquire: Heston Kjerstad
Orioles acquire: Aroldis Chapman and Braxton Ashcraft

Aroldis Chapman has been solid this season and owns a 3.82 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and 1.54 WHIP on the year. Chapman hasn’t allowed very many hits and has held opponents to a .180 batting average. He also has a respectable 0.96 HR/9, but most of the baserunners he’s allowed have come via free passes with a 20.2% BB%. On the plus side, he has struck out over a third of opponents with a 35.7% K%.

But Chapman had some hiccups in April that haven’t been present throughout the entire year. Since the start of May, he has a 3.14 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and 1.43 WHIP. Walks have still been an issue with a 17.9% BB%, but he has a similar 35.8% K% and 0.94 HR/9. The Cuban Missile has been even better as the weather has heated up. He has a sub-3.00 ERA (2.95), FIP (2.27), and an even better 1.20 WHIP since the start of June.

Plus, the Pirates would be including a good, MLB-ready pitching prospect in this deal with Braxton Ashcraft. Ashcraft missed nearly all of 2020 through 2022, but had a huge rebound in 2023. The right-hander has carried that over into 2024, as he has put up a 2.88 ERA, 2.94 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP in 72 innings. He has struck out 25.9% of his opponents with a microscopic 4.1% walk rate. Ashcraft hasn’t been home run prone, either, with an 0.75 HR/9.

Ashcraft has been sitting 94-96 MPH deep into games. He’s gone at least five innings on nine different occasions this year, which is the first time he has gone at least 5 IPs since 2021. Ashcraft has a second plus offering with his upper-80s slider. His second breaking pitch, a curveball, is also considered above average. Lastly, there’s his changeup, which is a fringy pitch, but one he can use. Ashcraft has displayed great command over all of his offerings as well.

The Pirates would be getting back Heston Kjerstad in this trade. The former first-round pick entered this year as a consensus top 50 prospect. He’s done well in his brief Major League career with a .266/.361/.457 line, .352 wOBA, and 130 wRC+ in 109 plate appearances. While Kjerstad has a healthy 10.1% walk rate, he also has a mediocre 28.4% walk rate. Kjerstad projects as a power hitter and has a 90.5 MPH exit velo and 10.9% barrel rate so far.

Kjerstad has hit very well at Triple-A this season, posting a .300/.397/.600 line. He is still striking out at an uninspiring 26% rate, but is offsetting that with a 12.4% walk rate. He’s hit for a ton of pop, going yard 16 times with a .300 isolated slugging percentage. Kjerstad has managed a 90.5 MPH exit velo and 12.4% barrel rate as well.

Kjerstad projects as a corner outfielder/first baseman. He’s an above-average runner and is in the 79th percentile of sprint speed this season. He also has a strong arm that can play in either outfield corner. Kjerstad has played a handful of games at first base the last two seasons, but he’s likely a good enough defender to stick in the grass.

Kjerstad might seem like a lot for Chapman and Ashcraft, but look at what other relievers on the trade market have gone for. The San Diego Padres just got Jason Adam for Dylan Lesko, JD Gonzalez, and Homer Bush. Lesko was a consensus top-50 prospect heading into the season and a former first-round pick from 2022. While he has struggled, he’s still a highly touted prospect. Gonzalez was ranked as one of the top 10 prospects in their system by Baseball America, and Bush was their 12th best prospect.

The Diamondbacks had to surrender a notable prospect in Deyvison De Los Santos as a headliner for A.J. Puk. Carlos Estevez was also traded for two top-10 prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies’ system. Like Chapman, Estevez is a rental. The Pirates would only be getting Kjerstad, and would be including a top-10 organizational prospect who could slot into a Major League pitching staff this year.

It’s also not as if Chapman has never been dealt for a huge package, even as a rental. Last year, the Kansas City Royals netted Cole Ragans from the Texas Rangers, who has gone on to become an All-Star and certified ace. In 2016, the New York Yankees pried what was one of the best prospects in all of baseball at the time for a rental Chapman from the Chicago Cubs in the form of Gleyber Torres. The Yanks also got Billy McKinney, who was also a consensus top-100 prospect at the time.

The Orioles are still in the market for pitching. They also only have one left-handed reliever on their active roster with both an ERA and FIP below 4.00. Chapman is someone they can slot in behind their current closer, Craig Kimbrel, and Ashcraft is someone they could call up now to pitch multiple innings out of the pen or start some games.