What would Pittsburgh Pirates look like if they hadn’t drafted Paul Skenes in 2023?

The Pittsburgh Pirates had one of the hardest draft choices in the sport’s history put on their plate nearly two years ago when they were forced to decide who to take first overall in the 2023 draft. That season’s draft class didn’t have a consensus number one top prospect ... not because there wasn’t one truly elite talent, but because there were a handful of truly elite talents. The top 10 talents from MLB Pipeline’s draft rankings would have likely been consensus top three talents in most other draft classes.

The Pirates ultimately made the right decision, taking Paul Skenes from Louisiana State University. Skenes had an historic rookie season, posting an otherworldly 214 ERA+ in 133 innings and 23 starts. He’s off to yet another outstanding start to 2025. But what if the Pirates chose someone else? Skenes ended up being the right decision, but it was not clear at the time. What would the team look like right now had the Pirates taken another player?

Well, for one, the Pirates’ pitching rotation wouldn’t look nearly as good. That’s obvious. They would still have some talented arms, like Mitch Keller and Jared Jones, with Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burrows in the minor leagues. But without Skenes, the Pirates may not have traded Luis Ortiz. Regardless, the rotation would still be a strength, with or without Skenes.

Who could Pirates have chosen in 2023 MLB Draft instead of Paul Skenes?

Outfielder Wyatt Lanford also seemed like a real possibility if the Pirates decided they wanted the under-slot position player. They had just taken Henry Davis in 2021 as an under-slot college player with the first overall pick, so going with an under-slot college position player in 2023 seemed to be on the table. The University of Florida outfielder ranked as the third-best player in the draft, per both Pipeline and Baseball America, but was the second-best according to FanGraphs. He had a 1.282 OPS with 21 dingers in 303 plate appearances in his final college season.

Langford was selected by the Texas Rangers fourth overall, and opened the following season on their major league roster. He slashed a quality .253/.325/.415 with a .321 wOBA and 110 wRC+ in 557 plate appearances. Langford only struck out 20.1% of the time with a 9.6% walk rate. He provided decent pop, going yard 16 times with a .162 isolated slugging percentage and 9.3% barrel percentage.

Most expected Langford to hit, but the part of his game that shockingly stood out the most was defense. Both Pipeline and BA projected Langford as an average defender with above-average speed, but Langford racked up +14 defensive runs saved and +2 outs above average with the 13th-best jump on fly balls. He was also in the 98th percentile of sprint speed. Langford looks like he’s ready to build off of his promising 2024. His OPS sits just a few points under .900, and his defense looks just as good as ever.

Had the Pirates drafted Langford, their outfield would have looked a lot different. Langford mostly played left field last season, but given how good he looked defensively, the Pirates may have put Langford in center field, with Oneil Cruz moving to right field and Bryan Reynolds still in left field. 

The other player many foresaw the Pirates drafting was Dylan Crews. Skenes was not the consensus No. 1 prospect in the draft, as BA ranked Crews No. 1 overall pre-draft, just a step above his LSU teammate. After all, Crews batted over .400 at .426 while drawing 71 walks, with just 46 Ks through 344 plate appearances. On top of that, Crews went yard 18 times. Crews was a very real possibility to go first overall.

Crews, instead, went second overall to the Washington Nationals. Needless to say, had the Pirates taken Crews, fans would have been even more unhappy than they are now. Crews' first 205 career plate appearances in the majors left him batting .206/.263/.328. He hasn’t hit for much power, with just five homers and a .122 isolated slugging percentage, nor has he walked much, with only a 6.8% BB%. So far, the only positives from Crews at the MLB level are his 21.5% K% and 18 stolen bases.

Crews has mostly played right field in the bigs, where he has +4 DRS and +1 OAA, but the up-and-comer has a handful of innings in center field as well. Had the Pirates taken Crews, he would have likely been in right field, with Cruz in center and Reynolds in left. As fun as it would be to watch the Pirates put together a Cruz-Crews outfield, the lack of offensive production from the LSU product has been disappointing. It’s still just over 200 plate appearances, but not having Skenes, plus no offense from Crews, would have only exacerbated the Pirates’ issues in the lineup.

One surprising option who could've been on the table for the Pirates to take was Jacob Wilson. Again, this would have been an under-slot college position player pick, but even further under-slot than Langford. Still, there certainly was the familial connection. His father is Jack Wilson, a one-time Pirates All-Star and Silver Slugger recipient who played in parts of nine seasons with the Buccos from 2001 through 2009. Plus, Wilson arguably had the best hit tool in the 2023 class. He batted .412 with just five strikeouts in 212 plate appearances at Grand Canyon University.

Wilson was instead selected sixth overall by the Oakland Athletics and made his MLB debut in 2024 after batting over .430 in the minor leagues. His season ultimately amounted to just 81 games between the minor leagues and majors after he suffered a hamstring injury. Wilson is back in action this season and is slashing .354/.354/.500 with a 152 wRC+ in 82 plate appearances. Wilson has not drawn a walk yet, but he has struck out thrice with a whiff rate of 10.6%. Remember that this all happened in less than 100 plate appearances, but still, Wilson is on pace to put up a lower K% than Tony Gwynn had for his career.

Had the Pirates taken Wilson, there are a few ways their future could have gone. Wilson would likely have taken over shortstop, with Cruz moving to center field earlier than he did in actuality. The Pirates would not have traded for Isiah-Kiner Falefa in this scenario, and they would have had a double-play duo of Nick Gonzales and Jacob Wilson. The second possible scenario would have played out with the Pirates keeping Cruz at shortstop, moving Wilson to second base, and then trading Gonzales. 

The question to ask is, with how poor the Pirates' offense has been to start 2025 and for a large chunk of 2024, would you rather have seen them roll out either Langford or Wilson, plus a higher-ceiling high school pick later in the draft with the money they saved, rather than Paul Skenes?

The Pirates also had the opportunity to choose high school outfield prospects Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. Both were consensus top-five draft prospects. Although neither are in the majors right now, the Pirates may have kept Cruz at shortstop or moved him to another position other than center field had they taken either Clark or Jenkins. 

We should be glad the Pirates made the right choice in this case. With so much super high-end talent, taking Skenes was not the clear and obvious choice. However, it would have been interesting to see where the team would have ended up had they taken someone else. There were a lot of ways the 2023 draft could have gone.