Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2015 starting rotation: four things to know

Feb 19, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers warm up before Thursdays workout at Pirate City. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

The 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation has been set.  Sort of.

While announcing that Francisco Liriano will be the team’s opening day starter, Hurdle also told Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette that the rest of the rotation will be comprised of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, Vance Worley/Jeff Locke, and Charlie Morton, in that order.  A few eyebrows were raised at this news, as not only is the battle between Locke and Worley still unresolved, but Morton received what looked like a demotion at first glance.  Hurdle later explained that the goal is to not have teams face Burnett and Morton back to back as their skillsets are similar.

Now that the rotation is set, I’d like to point out four things that you may or may not know about the Pirates’ rotation from last year and how it might affect this year’s performance.  The 2014 rotation had its share of miscues and misfortune, including injuries to Liriano, Cole, and Morton, along with ineffectiveness at times from Locke and others.  The 2015 rotation, while a completely different entity from the ’14 edition, shares many same philosophies with the previous staff and as such can make for some fair comparisons and projections.  Some of the points I’m about to highlight may shock you, and some may fill you with hope that the 2015 starting rotation can be even better than the 2014 model in many ways.

Let’s get started with what has quickly become the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bread-and-butter:  the ground ball.

Next: No one keeps it on the carpet like the Bucs

Aug 10, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsbugh Pirates’ starters had the best Ground Ball rate in the majors in 2014.

Morton is known as “Ground Chuck” for his proclivity to induce ground balls, but a quick look at the rest of the Pirates’ staff shows that the philosophy is team-wide.  The Bucs led all of MLB in ground ball % rate by starting pitchers, coming in at 50.9%, almost three full percentage points against the second-place Colorado Rockies, who came in at 48%.  This amazing ability of all the Bucs’ starters to keep the ball on the carpet led to another major-league best in Groundball-to-Flyball ratio at 1.73.

It’s  well-documented for the past couple of years that the Pirates have embraced analytics in all phases of the game.  The complete approach to analytics from an organization level has allowed the starting pitching to pitch to their strengths, concentrating on developing pitches – two-seam fastballs, sinkerballs – that result in all of those ground balls.  For this approach to work, the starters had to buy-in completely, and although there were some who hesitated, the results speak for themselves.  In addition to the highest ground ball percentage in the majors, the Pirates also had the second-lowest line drive percentage in the majors at 19.7%.

One area in which the Bucs could improve when it comes to batted balls is Home Runs per Fly Ball percentage.  HR/FB% refers to the percentage of fly-balls that result in home runs.  In this metric, the Pirates are merely mediocre, ranking 20th overall in MLB at 10.3%  Some of this was inflated by Wandy Rodriguez allowing 10 home runs in his six starts in 2014, so this number should decrease.  Curiously enough, the Pirates were second-best in LEAST amount of total home runs allowed, at 85, only five more than the Chicago Cubs.

Of course, another factor in getting ground balls is pitching inside.  And believe me, the Pirates love to pitch inside.

Next: Just a bit inside

Mar 12, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher A.J. Burnett (34) leaves the game during a spring training baseball game at McKechnie Field. The Boston Red Sox beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The Bucs hit the most batters of any major league starting staff.

As a unit, the Pirates’ starters plunked 58 batters in 2014, good for most in the majors and far more than the league average of 35.  Much has been written about the consequences that can come from such an approach, but perhaps it’s a good time for a refresher:

‘Unwritten rules’ aside, this approach to the plate can be problematic as it could put runners on base.  While that in itself might not be a problem the loss of Russell Martin greatly amplifies things.  Of the three candidates to replace Martin full-time, only Chris Stewart has a track record of consistently throwing out would-be base stealers, at 31% for his career, right on the 2014 league average.  Francisco Cervelli and Tony Sanchez come in at a disappointing 22% and an abysmal 15% for their careers, respectively.  While not only inviting opposing barbarians like the Diamondbacks to retaliate, it can put added pressure on the Pirate backstops to control the running game.  It could be worse.  The Bucs ranked in the middle-of-the-pack as a team in CS% at 28.9%, and the Pirates’ starters do play a part in that.  None of them are particularly slow to the plate, and that does help cut down on opposing clubs’ attempts to run.

One way to guard against baserunners hurting you is to outscore them.

Next: How about a little help here!

Sep 23, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) throws out a runner at second base after a bunt against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

They don’t get as much run support as they should.

For 2014, the Pittsburgh Pirates only placed two starters in the top 100 in terms of Run Support for that pitcher.  Edinson Volquez, newly departed for the KC Royals, was the highest Pirate in this regard, placing 23rd overall, as the Bucs scored an average of 4.35 runs in each of his starts.  The next Pirate on the list was Francsico Liriano, at number 78, with a paltry 3.38 average runs scored in support of his starts.  This absolutely must improve if the team is to finally overtake the Cardinals for NL Central supremacy.  With the emerging Pirate offense, there is no reason to think that this number will not see improvement.  Every pitcher that has ever played will absolutely tell you that pitching with runs on the board is their preferred scenario by far.  With Andrew McCutchen anchoring the lineup, along with superstars-in-the-making such as Starling Marte, I would be surprised if we did not see the Pirates offensive attack do more this year to help their starters.

Of course, there is plenty of room for the starters to help themselves, also.

Next: Can the starters take that next step to the elite?