Pirates' Mitch Keller dilemma now has one surprisingly simple answer

The Pittsburgh Pirates (supposedly) came into this winter with a clear plan: trade from starting-pitching depth to finally fix a lineup that finished last in baseball in basically every offensive category that matters.

That part makes sense. Pitching is Pittsburgh’s currency, and bats are the shortage. And to their credit, they already executed that plan twice — flipping Johan Oviedo and Tyler Samaniego to Boston for Jhostynxon Garcia, an MLB-ready Top 100 outfielder at a position of need, then sending Mike Burrows out to Houston in a three-teamer that neeted them Brandon Lowe. That’s the exact type of shift this team had to make.

But here’s the thing: not every pitching trade is created equal. And based on everything we’re hearing, Mitch Keller might not be the trade chip fans hoped he would be.

At the Winter Meetings, Ben Cherington made it clear that if the Pirates trade another starter, the deal needs to bring back something that helps now. Not prospects. Not depth. Not “maybe in 2027.” He said it plainly — it has to go directly into the lineup.

That’s where the Keller conversation hits a wall.

Because the league’s view of Keller — fair or not — seems a lot closer to back-end starter than rotation anchor. And if that’s the perception, then the return probably isn’t a middle-of-the-order bat. It’s not fixing third base. It’s not fixing the corner outfield. It’s probably not even fixing DH.

And if Keller isn’t bringing back MLB-ready offense, then trading him might actively make the Pirates worse.

If Mitch Keller isn't bringing back MLB-ready bats, the Pirates' smart play is to keep him

Let’s be brutally honest about the rotation for a second. Right now, Keller and Paul Skenes are the only two starters with more than one year of MLB experience. That’s it. Everyone else is either unproven, coming off injury, or still figuring out how to survive a full big-league season.

So what’s the plan if you move Keller? Lean even harder on kids? Replace him with a cheaper veteran you hope gives you 150 innings? Save money just to spend it on... another starting pitcher?

Cherington even acknowledged that trading a starter would likely require adding a starter back into the mix. Which raises an obvious question: what are we really accomplishing then?

If the return isn’t a bat that changes the lineup, all you’re doing is shuffling risk.

And here’s the part fans don’t love to hear but need to accept: Keller still has value to this team, even if his league-wide value isn’t elite. He takes the ball. He eats innings. He knows how to navigate a lineup multiple times. And on a team trying to take a step forward — not reset, not tank, not “wait another year” — that matters, especially when your ace is 23 years old.

The Pirates already used pitching capital the right way once this winter. That doesn’t mean they have to force a second deal just because the idea sounded good in October. If Keller isn’t bringing back real, immediate offense — the kind this lineup is screaming for — then keeping him might actually be the most responsible move they can make.

You can’t build a competitive roster by creating new holes just to prove you’re willing to trade. If the market isn’t there, it isn’t there. And sometimes the smartest trade is the one you don’t make.