Pirates' offensive upgrade might not matter if this problem doesn’t get fixed in 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates don’t need to become an offensive juggernaut to change their trajectory in 2026. They just need to stop bleeding out in the margins.

Last season, Pittsburgh played in a league-leading 60 one-run games. More than a third of their schedule came down to a single swing, a single pitch, a single defensive play. They went 25–35 in those games, a record matched only in futility by the Chicago White Sox, who somehow managed to be even worse.

That’s not random noise. That’s the difference between “rebuilding team with promise” and “fringe Wild Card contender.”

The Pirates have already made one clear attempt to address this issue. Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe were brought in to lift an offense that spent most of 2025 stuck in the basement in runs scored. Fewer nights where three runs feels like a miracle. More games where a late solo homer flips the script instead of tying it.

That matters. A lot.

But close games aren’t won by bats alone. They’re won in the seventh, eighth, and ninth — the innings where hope either survives or dies. And right now, that’s the part of the roster still on shaky ground.

Pirates' bullpen, not the offense, could quietly decide whether they rise or collapse in 2026

FanGraphs’ early projections paint a sobering picture, according to Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Gregory Soto, a new addition, is expected to lead the Pirates' bullpen in fWAR. That’s fine in theory. The problem is everything that follows. The model is skeptical of Dennis Santana. It’s lukewarm on Isaac Mattson. It doesn’t buy fully into Justin Lawrence. Several of the relievers who quietly stabilized games in 2025 are projected to slide back toward the mean.

That’s not a condemnation of those arms. It’s a reminder of how fragile bullpen success is.

The Pirates have, to their credit, built a reputation for finding relievers who outperform expectations. They’ve turned waiver claims into leverage pieces. They’ve helped unheralded arms find sharper shapes, better plans, and clearer roles. That development edge is real.

But edges dull over time. Regression is undefeated. If Pittsburgh wants to flip even half of last year’s one-run losses, the bullpen can’t just be “good enough.” It has to be a weapon.

Think about how many games felt winnable in 2025. How many nights ended with a runner stranded at third in the ninth. How many times the offense finally scratched across a late run, only for it to vanish in the bottom half. How many Paul Skenes or Mitch Keller starts were reduced to moral victories.

That’s where seasons swing.

Offense can widen the margin. A two-run lead instead of a one-run lead changes everything. O’Hearn and Lowe should help create those moments. But even with improvement, the Pirates are still going to live in close games. That’s the nature of a team built around young pitching and incremental growth. So the bullpen has to meet them there.

It's on the bullpen to turn those 3–2 games into wins instead of lessons. It's on the bullpen to make the eighth inning boring. It's on the bullpen to make the ninth feel inevitable. It's on the bullpen to allow the rest of the roster to breathe.

The difference between 25–35 and, say, 33–27 in one-run games is eight wins. Eight wins is the gap between another summer of “maybe next year” and meaningful baseball in September.

The Pirates are closer than they were. The lineup is better. The rotation has real teeth. The foundation is there. Now the relief corps has to prove that 2025 wasn’t a mirage — and that 2026 doesn’t have to be defined by what slips away.