Pirates' predicted free-agent signing could be a disappointing Brandon Lowe consolation prize

The Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of holes to fill this offseason, but none is more glaring than the one they could be left with if Brandon Lowe departs in free agency. And if the latest predictions from MLB Trade Rumors are any indication, their potential solution might leave plenty to be desired.

In MLB Trade Rumors' annual Top 50 free-agent predictions, two of the outlet's three writers, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco, predicted that veteran infielder J.P. Crawford would sign with Pittsburgh. MLBTR projects Crawford to command a two-year, $16 million contract, making him a significantly more affordable alternative to Lowe, who is projected to receive $69 million over three years.

On the surface, Crawford makes some sense for the Pirates. But there's a difference between adding a useful veteran and adequately replacing one of the most productive hitters in Pittsburgh's lineup. And if Crawford is the Pirates' primary response to losing Lowe, Ben Cherington could be setting his offense up for a significant step backward.

J.P. Crawford could help Pirates lineup, but he isn't replacing Brandon Lowe's production

To Crawford's credit, he possesses several offensive traits the Pirates desperately need. He draws walks, works counts and generally avoids the excessive strikeouts that have plagued Pittsburgh's lineup.

In 116 games with the Seattle Mariners in 2026, Crawford slashed .221/.335/.352 with 14 home runs and 40 RBI. His 13.1% walk rate and 19.8% strikeout rate demonstrate a disciplined approach that would be a welcome addition to Pittsburgh's offense.

His versatility is another selling point. Crawford has spent most of his career at shortstop but transitioned to third base in 2026, making him a potential option at either third or second base for the Pirates. Given Pittsburgh's defensive uncertainty on the infield, that flexibility has legitimate value.

But Crawford's offensive limitations are difficult to ignore, particularly when considering who he might be replacing. Lowe hit .260/.331/.493 with 35 home runs and 96 RBI in 2026, providing the kind of middle-of-the-order power Pittsburgh has struggled to find for years. His production helped transform an offense that finished last in baseball in 2025 into one capable of competing on a nightly basis.

Crawford, meanwhile, has never hit more than 19 home runs in a season. His on-base skills are valuable, but they aren't going to compensate for losing a hitter who led all major league second basemen in home runs last season.

There's also the matter of lineup balance. The Pirates were historically ineffective against left-handed starting pitchers in 2026, finishing 18-33 in those games while batting .229 with a .300 on-base percentage and .359 slugging percentage. All three offensive marks ranked last in baseball.

Crawford bats left-handed, meaning he wouldn't directly address one of Pittsburgh's most persistent offensive weaknesses. That doesn't make him a bad player or necessarily a bad signing. But it does make him a questionable centerpiece of any effort to replace Lowe's production.

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of a potential Crawford signing would be the financial implications. At a projected $8 million annually, Crawford would fit comfortably within Pittsburgh's usual spending habits. Lowe, by comparison, is expected to command an average annual salary of approximately $23 million.

Pittsburgh finally managed a winning record in 2026, finishing 82-80 and taking a meaningful step toward contention. Allowing its most productive power hitter to walk and replacing him with a significantly less dangerous offensive player in the name of saving money would threaten to undo some of that progress.

Of course, signing Crawford wouldn't necessarily prevent the Pirates from adding another impact bat. In fact, pairing his on-base ability with a legitimate right-handed power threat could be a sensible strategy. The concern is whether Cherington would actually make that second move.

Crawford could be a worthwhile complementary piece, particularly at MLBTR's projected price. But he shouldn't be mistaken for an adequate Lowe replacement simply because he fills an infield vacancy at a fraction of the cost.

The Pirates spent years searching for the kind of offensive production Lowe finally delivered in 2026. Losing it after one season would be disappointing enough. Replacing it with a cheaper, considerably less productive alternative and calling the offseason a success would be worse.

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