Spencer Horwitz’s Super Two status quietly makes Pirates’ offseason math more complicated

The Pittsburgh Pirates knew their young core was eventually going to become more expensive. For some of that core, “eventually” is starting to arrive a little earlier than expected.

Spencer Horwitz finished the 2026 season with only 2.152 years of major-league service time, which would ordinarily leave a player one more year away from salary arbitration. Horwitz, however, qualified for Super Two status, placing him among the top 22 percent in service time among eligible players with between two and three years in the majors.

That gives Horwitz an extra trip through arbitration — and gives the Pirates another salary increase to account for this winter. MLB Trade Rumors projects Horwitz to earn $2.5 million in 2027, making him one of 10 arbitration-eligible Pirates players.

No, $2.5 million isn't going to wreck Pittsburgh's payroll. But Horwitz's situation illustrates how quickly the Pirates' financial picture is beginning to change — and why the organization can't keep treating its young, inexpensive roster as something that will remain inexpensive forever.

Horwitz isn't alone here, either. Paul Skenes is projected for a massive $7.2 million salary in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Oneil Cruz is projected for $6.3 million, Nick Gonzales for $3.1 million and Jared Jones for $2.1 million. Add Horwitz and the rest of Pittsburgh's arbitration class, and MLB Trade Rumors' projections total roughly $28.7 million.

That still leaves the Pirates with plenty of room to spend. It does, however, make their margin for passive roster-building a little smaller.

Horwitz was making a pre-arbitration salary in 2026. Now, before he has even accumulated three full years of service time, Pittsburgh is projected to owe him $2.5 million. Super Two status also means Horwitz is positioned to go through arbitration four times instead of the standard three before reaching free agency.

That's especially notable because the Pirates aren't paying $2.5 million for a player who completely cemented himself as a middle-of-the-order fixture in 2026. Horwitz finished the year batting .244/.344/.364 with 10 home runs and 49 RBI in 114 games, good for a 97 wRC+.

Horwitz's season was essentially split in two. Before suffering a left hamstring strain in June, he was one of Pittsburgh's most productive hitters, slashing .280/.386/.455 with 10 homers through 74 games. A concussion suffered during his rehab assignment delayed his eventual return until Aug. 2. He was never the same offensive player afterward.

That doesn't make Horwitz a realistic non-tender candidate at $2.5 million. His on-base skills alone provide value, and the first-half version of Horwitz showed why the Pirates were comfortable giving him regular at-bats. But it does make his role worth examining.

Spencer Horwitz's projected arbitration raise is small, but it's part of a much bigger Pirates question

For years, Pittsburgh's roster construction has been built around the advantage of having productive young players earning close to the league minimum. That advantage doesn't disappear overnight. Skenes, Jones, Cruz, Gonzales and Horwitz remain inexpensive relative to what comparable players can cost on the open market.

But arbitration raises accumulate over time, and Horwitz now gets there a year early because of Super Two status. And that's before the Pirates address the biggest questions on their offseason shopping list.

Brandon Lowe is headed to free agency. The offense still needs legitimate middle-of-the-order help. The rotation needs additional depth after Pittsburgh was forced into bullpen games down the stretch. There are roster decisions to make throughout the bullpen and bench. None of those needs disappear because Horwitz costs another couple million dollars.

More importantly, none of them should become an excuse not to spend. The Pirates have spent years waiting for the moment when enough of their young talent reached the majors simultaneously to create a legitimate competitive window. That window is here. The natural consequence is that those players will gradually stop being dirt cheap.

Horwitz reaching arbitration ahead of schedule is a relatively minor example, but it is still a reminder of the ticking clock. Pittsburgh can't operate as though Skenes will always cost almost nothing. It can't assume Jones, Cruz or Gonzales will either.

Every offseason the Pirates delay aggressively supplementing this core is another offseason in which the financial advantage gets a little smaller.

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